BOJ September meeting summary – Yen, oil price moves may stop inflation from falling much

<p>From the Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions at the Monetary Policy Meeting on September 21 and 22, 2023.</p><p>Headlines via Reuters:</p><ul><li>
One member said inflation likely to slow ahead</li><li>One member said
inflation exceeding 2% but this is largely due to firms passing on
higher import costs</li><li>Inflation likely to
keep rising next fiscal year due to expected rises in transportation,
public service fees</li><li>One member said
seeing signs that positive cycle rising wages and inflation may be
kicking off</li><li>One member said
there is chance next year's wage growth may exceed that of this year</li><li>One member said
given recent fx, oil price moves, there is chance inflation may not
slow much and overshoot expectations</li><li>One member said no
need to make additional tweaks to YCC as long-term rates moving
fairly stably</li><li>One member said end
to YCC, negative rate must be tied to success of achieving 2%
inflation target</li><li>One member said to
sustainably hit price goal, wage gains must become sustained and lead
to inflation driven by service prices</li><li>One member said
there is still some distance but japan nearing achievement of price
target, so latter half of current fiscal year will be crucial phase
in determining next year's price outlook, other factors</li><li>One member said
cannot determine now timing of policy tweak as that will depend
largely on economic, price conditions at the time</li><li>One member said
BOJ's communication, guidance must be made in a way that does not
constrain too much its freedom on timing, order of policy move</li><li>One member said it
is important to prepare for exit from risk-management perspective as
we could have clarity around January – March next year on whether 2%
inflation target can be met in sustained, stable fashion</li><li>One member said
side-effect of YCC remains even after steps in July to make it more
flexible</li><li>One member said even
if BOJ ends negative rate policy, monetary conditions will remain
accommodative as long as real interest rates are negative</li></ul><p>There is a lot of 'one member' in that lot. Which is hardly suggestive of a consensus on any of it. </p><p>USD/JPY is little changed:</p><p>Earlier from the BOJ:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boj-gov-ueda-spoke-over-the-weekend-said-still-a-distance-to-go-to-exit-loose-policy-20231001/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">BOJ Gov Ueda spoke over the weekend – said "still a distance to go" to exit loose policy</a></li></ul>

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.