BOJ meet this week. MUFG still expect YCC tweak but their confidence ebbing. Yen scenario.

<p>The Bank of Japan meet on the 27th and 28th.</p><p>Goldman Sachs expect a tweak:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/goldman-sachs-are-still-expecting-the-bank-of-japan-will-tweak-ycc-policy-this-week-20230724/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">Goldman Sachs are still expecting thee Bank of Japan will tweak YCC policy this week</a></li></ul><p>As do MUFG:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/mufg-are-expecting-a-bank-of-japan-yield-curve-control-tweak-at-this-weeks-policy-meeting-20230724/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">MUFG are expecting a Bank of Japan Yield Curve Control tweak at this week's policy meeting</a></li></ul><p>However, MUFG do say now that their conviction on this is diminishing:</p><p>Key Points </p><p>
1. YCC Change Conviction: MUFG has reduced certainty about an alteration in YCC settings in the imminent announcement, but the element of surprise inherent to YCC adjustments means a change remains possible. </p><p>2. End-Q3 Forecast: Their end-Q3 forecast of 136.00 is based on the prediction of a YCC change. This implies a considerable drop if an unexpected YCC change occurs. </p><p>3. JPY Risk Direction: Given the potential outcomes, the JPY risk is now more inclined towards a larger gain if YCC remains unchanged, as opposed to a loss.</p><p>MUFG summary comes via eFX.; </p><p align="left">
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This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.