Bank of Canada survey: Market participants see first rate cut in April

<ul><li>Median 2024 estimate 1.2%</li><li>Probability of a recession in 6-12 months at 48%</li><li>End 2024 CPI seen at 2.2%</li><li>First cut seen in April, second in July, third in Sept</li><li>Year end 2024 rate seen at 4.00% (vs 5.00% now)</li><li>Year end 2025 seen at 2.88%</li><li>75% of participants said risks skewed towards higher rates</li><li>End 2024 Canadian 5-year yield seen at 3.15% (vs 3.85% currently)</li><li><a href="https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/11/markets-participants-survey-third-quarter-of-2023/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Full survey</a></li></ul><p>This survey was done in late September so it's a bit stale but it's good idea of what should be expected. It will be interesting to see if Macklem continues to try and push back against rate cuts.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.