Australian CPI data due today, preview – expect another RBA rate hike next week

<p>Australian inflation data is due today, both for Q2 and for the June month.</p><ul><li>Due at 11.30 am Sydney time</li></ul><ul><li>0130 GMT, 9.30pm US Eastern time</li></ul><p>I posted preview thoughts earlier here:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/economic-calendar-in-asia-australian-cpi-data-will-be-eyed-by-the-rba-meeting-next-week-20230725/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">Economic calendar in Asia: Australian CPI data will be eyed by the RBA (meeting next week)</a></li></ul><p>This now from National Australia Bank, in brief:</p><ul><li>We expect Q2 CPI … to show little sequential progress reducing underlying inflation even as y/y rates move lower. While we pencil in trimmed mean inflation of 1.1% q/q and 6.0% y/y to be in line with the RBA’s May SoMP of 6.0% y/y, we expect the details around services to be less favourable, flagging the risk of a slower return of inflation to target than in the SoMP profile.</li><li>Overall, while we do not expect the Q2 outcome to sharply surprise the RBA’s May forecast, we do think that the detail will be indicative of some persistence in inflation pressures that the RBA has been citing as a risk. We expect trimmed mean inflation to fall to 4.3% y/y by years end, which will be above the 4.0% forecast by the RBA in their SoMP. A further tightening in policy therefore will be needed to have greater confidence in getting inflation back to 3% by mid-2025 and NAB continues to expect the RBA will raise the cash rate in August and to 4.6% over coming months.</li></ul><p>Earlier:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/australian-cpi-data-due-today-preview-big-undershoot-needed-to-stop-the-rba-from-hiking-20230725/" target="_self" rel="follow">Australian CPI data due today, preview – big undershoot needed to stop the RBA from hiking</a></li></ul>

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.