AUD/JPY Technical: At risk of a minor decline sequence

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<li><strong>An impending minor bearish reversal “Double Top” has been formed in the last two weeks.</strong></li>
<li><strong>Failure to have a clear break above 98.40 long-term secular range resistance in place since October 2007 after a fifth retest last Friday, 24 November.</strong></li>
<li><strong>Watch the key short-term resistance at 98.00.</strong></li>
</ul>
<p>This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, <em>“AUD/JPY Technical: Holding above the 20-day moving average</em><em>”</em> published on 22 November 2023. Click <a href="https://marketpulse.com/forex/aud-jpy-technical-holding-above-the-20-day-moving-average/kwong">here</a> for a recap.</p>
<p>The price actions of the<a href="https://www.oanda.com/sg-en/trading/forex/"> AUD/JPY</a> cross-pair have shaped the expected push-up right above the 96.85 short-term support as highlighted in our earlier analysis and retested the 98.40 long-term secular range resistance for the fifth time last Friday, 24 November.</p>
<h2><strong>Impending bearish minor “Double Top” sighted</strong></h2>
<p><a href="https://www.marketpulse.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/AUDJPY_2023-11-30_16-16-34.png"><img loading="lazy" class="alignnone wp-image-808872 size-large" src="https://www.marketpulse.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/AUDJPY_2023-11-30_16-16-34-1024×589.png" alt="" width="700" height="403" srcset="https://www.marketpulse.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/AUDJPY_2023-11-30_16-16-34-1024×589.png 1024w, https://www.marketpulse.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/AUDJPY_2023-11-30_16-16-34-300×173.png 300w, https://www.marketpulse.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/AUDJPY_2023-11-30_16-16-34-768×442.png 768w, https://www.marketpulse.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/AUDJPY_2023-11-30_16-16-34.png 1514w" sizes="(max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px" /></a></p>
<p>Fig 1: AUD/JPY minor short-term trend as of 30 Nov 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)</p>
<p>The AUD/JPY has started to inch down lower after last Friday’s retest on the 98.40 long-term secular range resistance as price actions have conjured into a potential minor bearish reversal “Double Top” configuration as seen on its short-term hourly chart since 16 November 2023 swing high.</p>
<p>In addition, the hourly RSI momentum indicator has continued to exhibit a potential resurgence of short-term bearish momentum as it failed to break above a parallel resistance at the 55 level.</p>
<p>Watch the 98.00 key short-term pivotal resistance and a break below 96.85 (the neckline support of the minor “Double Top”) exposes the next intermediate support zone of 96.10/95.80 (also the 50-day moving average).</p>
<p>On the flipside, a clearance above 98.00 invalidates the bearish tone for a retest on the 98.40/55 long-term secular range resistance.</p>