Antipodeans: Neutral Towards the End of September

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<p>Major stock market indices in the Asia-Pacific region are mostly trading lower on Thursday in anticipation of the latest information regarding Japan’s inflation, unemployment rate, and industrial production. Meanwhile, two Hong Kong-listed branches of Evergrande Group halted trading without further explanation, reinforcing instability in China’s real estate sector.</p>
<h3><strong>New Zealand</strong></h3>
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<p>After declining in the previous two sessions, the New Zealand Dollar traded around <strong>$0.5940</strong> on Thursday, helped by recent data showing that business mood in the country improved in <span><strong>September for the first time in 28 months,</strong></span> as cost pressures eased further.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, speculation increased that the RBNZ which is still battling high inflation, might take a more hawkish stance at its monetary policy meeting next week. After <strong>525 bps of rate hikes since October 2021,</strong> consumer price inflation in New Zealand further declined to 6% in the second quarter of 2023, which is the lowest level in 1-1/2 years, but still outside the board’s target range of 1% to 3%.</p>
<p>The <strong>RBNZ</strong> is one of many major central banks seeking to end their severe tightening cycle. Weak domestic demand and declining export demand are putting pressure on the New Zealand economy. The New Zealand Dollar has held up against the US Dollar in September, although <strong>NZDUSD</strong> took a hit in August of 3.9%. The decline was largely due to the deteriorating Chinese economy.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the US economy remains strong despite high interest rates. The Fed kept interest rates on hold last week, but the pause was hawkish as the<span><em> Fed warned markets to expect a ‘longer-term’ path of higher rates</em></span> as it seeks to bring inflation down to the 2% target set by the Fed.</p>
<p>For traders to watch out for, the US will release its third GDP estimate for August today, with the market consensus at 2.0%. This would mark a downward revision from the second estimate of 2.1% and the initial estimate of 2.4%. <strong>The US economy continues to post respectable growth figures despite the Fed’s sharp tightening, as the labour market remains strong, and consumers continue to spend.</strong></p>
<h3>Technical Review</h3>
<p><a href="https://forextraderhub.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/45446202-HFMarketsGlobal-Live1-Hedge-HF-Markets-SV-Ltd.-NZDUSDbDaily-9_28_2023-12_25_51-PM-2.png"><img decoding="async" class="size-full wp-image-734142" src="https://forextraderhub.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/45446202-HFMarketsGlobal-Live1-Hedge-HF-Markets-SV-Ltd.-NZDUSDbDaily-9_28_2023-12_25_51-PM-2.png" alt="" srcset="/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/45446202-HFMarketsGlobal-Live1-Hedge-HF-Markets-SV-Ltd.-NZDUSDbDaily-9_28_2023-12_25_51-PM-2.png 1920w, /wp-content/uploads/2023/09/45446202-HFMarketsGlobal-Live1-Hedge-HF-Markets-SV-Ltd.-NZDUSDbDaily-9_28_2023-12_25_51-PM-2-300×150.png 300w, /wp-content/uploads/2023/09/45446202-HFMarketsGlobal-Live1-Hedge-HF-Markets-SV-Ltd.-NZDUSDbDaily-9_28_2023-12_25_51-PM-2-1024×514.png 1024w, /wp-content/uploads/2023/09/45446202-HFMarketsGlobal-Live1-Hedge-HF-Markets-SV-Ltd.-NZDUSDbDaily-9_28_2023-12_25_51-PM-2-768×385.png 768w, /wp-content/uploads/2023/09/45446202-HFMarketsGlobal-Live1-Hedge-HF-Markets-SV-Ltd.-NZDUSDbDaily-9_28_2023-12_25_51-PM-2-1536×770.png 1536w, /wp-content/uploads/2023/09/45446202-HFMarketsGlobal-Live1-Hedge-HF-Markets-SV-Ltd.-NZDUSDbDaily-9_28_2023-12_25_51-PM-2-696×349.png 696w, /wp-content/uploads/2023/09/45446202-HFMarketsGlobal-Live1-Hedge-HF-Markets-SV-Ltd.-NZDUSDbDaily-9_28_2023-12_25_51-PM-2-1068×536.png 1068w, /wp-content/uploads/2023/09/45446202-HFMarketsGlobal-Live1-Hedge-HF-Markets-SV-Ltd.-NZDUSDbDaily-9_28_2023-12_25_51-PM-2-837×420.png 837w" /></a></p>
<p>NZDUSD, Daily.</p>
<p><strong>NZDUSD</strong> decline, stuck at 61.8% FR level around <strong>0.5900</strong> from <strong>0.5511</strong> and <strong>0.6537</strong> measurements, throughout the month of September. Consolidation is seen to be ongoing within the range of <strong>0.5859</strong> – <strong>0.6014.</strong> With 1 working day left in September, it is highly likely that the September candle will produce a monthly doji candle. Technically, the pair is still in a downtrend so a drop below <strong>0.5859</strong> support will confirm, that the decline from <strong>0.6537</strong> is not yet complete. Conversely, a move above <strong>0.6014,</strong> the pair could test the <strong>200-day EMA</strong> around <strong>0.6120.</strong> However, as long as <strong>0.6411</strong> resistance holds, the outlook remains bearish ahead.</p>
<figure aria-describedby="caption-attachment-734154"><a href="https://forextraderhub.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/45446202-HFMarketsGlobal-Live1-Hedge-HF-Markets-SV-Ltd.-NZDUSDbDaily-9_28_2023-12_30_13-PM-2.png"><img decoding="async" class="size-full wp-image-734154" src="https://forextraderhub.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/45446202-HFMarketsGlobal-Live1-Hedge-HF-Markets-SV-Ltd.-NZDUSDbDaily-9_28_2023-12_30_13-PM-2.png" alt="" srcset="/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/45446202-HFMarketsGlobal-Live1-Hedge-HF-Markets-SV-Ltd.-NZDUSDbDaily-9_28_2023-12_30_13-PM-2.png 1920w, /wp-content/uploads/2023/09/45446202-HFMarketsGlobal-Live1-Hedge-HF-Markets-SV-Ltd.-NZDUSDbDaily-9_28_2023-12_30_13-PM-2-300×150.png 300w, /wp-content/uploads/2023/09/45446202-HFMarketsGlobal-Live1-Hedge-HF-Markets-SV-Ltd.-NZDUSDbDaily-9_28_2023-12_30_13-PM-2-1024×511.png 1024w, /wp-content/uploads/2023/09/45446202-HFMarketsGlobal-Live1-Hedge-HF-Markets-SV-Ltd.-NZDUSDbDaily-9_28_2023-12_30_13-PM-2-768×383.png 768w, /wp-content/uploads/2023/09/45446202-HFMarketsGlobal-Live1-Hedge-HF-Markets-SV-Ltd.-NZDUSDbDaily-9_28_2023-12_30_13-PM-2-1536×766.png 1536w, /wp-content/uploads/2023/09/45446202-HFMarketsGlobal-Live1-Hedge-HF-Markets-SV-Ltd.-NZDUSDbDaily-9_28_2023-12_30_13-PM-2-696×347.png 696w, /wp-content/uploads/2023/09/45446202-HFMarketsGlobal-Live1-Hedge-HF-Markets-SV-Ltd.-NZDUSDbDaily-9_28_2023-12_30_13-PM-2-1068×533.png 1068w, /wp-content/uploads/2023/09/45446202-HFMarketsGlobal-Live1-Hedge-HF-Markets-SV-Ltd.-NZDUSDbDaily-9_28_2023-12_30_13-PM-2-842×420.png 842w" /></a><figcaption>NZDUSD, H8</figcaption></figure>
<p>Intraday bias remains neutral and trading range remains narrow. A move above <strong>0.5988</strong> will test the upper range of <strong>0.6014</strong> or the 50.0%FR/ EMA 200 level, while a move below <strong>0.5899</strong> support will test <strong>0.5859.</strong> A move below <strong>0.5859</strong> will confirm the bearish trend.</p>
<h3><strong>Meanwhile in Australia…..</strong></h3>
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<p>Meanwhile, the latest retail statistics from Australia showed a bleak picture of consumer spending, with August retail sales turnover only marginally increasing on a monthly basis to <strong>AUD 35.4 billion,</strong> falling short of the anticipated rise. Over the year, sales turnover rose 1.5% y/y. Retail sales only increased by 0.2% in August, compared to the market forecast of 0.3% and after a final growth of 0.5% in the previous month, preliminary data showed. <span><strong>This small increase suggests that consumers continue to hold back their spending as interest rates remain high.</strong></span></p>
<p><a href="https://forextraderhub.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Retail.png"><img decoding="async" class="size-full wp-image-734174" src="https://forextraderhub.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Retail.png" alt="" srcset="/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Retail.png 1980w, /wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Retail-300×167.png 300w, /wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Retail-1024×569.png 1024w, /wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Retail-768×427.png 768w, /wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Retail-1536×853.png 1536w, /wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Retail-696×387.png 696w, /wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Retail-1068×593.png 1068w, /wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Retail-756×420.png 756w" /></a></p>
<p><strong>Australia’s inflation rate rose 5.2% y/y</strong> in August, up from 4.9% y/y in July and in line with consensus estimates. This marked the first acceleration in inflation since April. Rising fuel prices contributed to the higher monthly inflation rate of 0.8%, up from 0.3% in July. The headline core inflation indicator fell to 5.5% y/y, down from 5.8% y/y in July. The inflation data had little effect on the market, which widely expects a<span><strong> fourth consecutive pause from the RBA in October</strong></span>. The market views the rise in inflation as a temporary change and expects the overall downward trend to continue, with expectations of a rate hike in May 2024.</p>
<p><strong>RBA Governor, Michelle Bullock</strong> has emphasised, that the door is open for further rate hikes and the rate decision will be data dependent. This stance is not surprising, as the central bank does not want to suggest that interest rates have peaked, while inflation is still well above the 2% inflation target.</p>
<h3>Technical Review</h3>
<p><strong>AUDUSD, D1</strong>– bearish trend doesn’t look to have stopped yet, although throughout September the pair was seen ranging, but the bias was towards the downside. The trend from <strong>0.8006</strong> peak may still be ongoing. A decisive break of <strong>0.6330</strong> will target <strong>0.6271</strong> and <strong>0.6169</strong> support. <strong>The level will now remain the preferred choice</strong> as long as <strong>0.6510</strong> resistance holds.</p>
<p><a href="https://forextraderhub.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/45446202-HFMarketsGlobal-Live1-Hedge-HF-Markets-SV-Ltd.-NZDUSDbDaily-9_28_2023-1_09_13-PM-2.png"><img decoding="async" class="size-full wp-image-734204" src="https://forextraderhub.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/45446202-HFMarketsGlobal-Live1-Hedge-HF-Markets-SV-Ltd.-NZDUSDbDaily-9_28_2023-1_09_13-PM-2.png" alt="" srcset="/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/45446202-HFMarketsGlobal-Live1-Hedge-HF-Markets-SV-Ltd.-NZDUSDbDaily-9_28_2023-1_09_13-PM-2.png 1147w, /wp-content/uploads/2023/09/45446202-HFMarketsGlobal-Live1-Hedge-HF-Markets-SV-Ltd.-NZDUSDbDaily-9_28_2023-1_09_13-PM-2-300×185.png 300w, /wp-content/uploads/2023/09/45446202-HFMarketsGlobal-Live1-Hedge-HF-Markets-SV-Ltd.-NZDUSDbDaily-9_28_2023-1_09_13-PM-2-1024×632.png 1024w, /wp-content/uploads/2023/09/45446202-HFMarketsGlobal-Live1-Hedge-HF-Markets-SV-Ltd.-NZDUSDbDaily-9_28_2023-1_09_13-PM-2-768×474.png 768w, /wp-content/uploads/2023/09/45446202-HFMarketsGlobal-Live1-Hedge-HF-Markets-SV-Ltd.-NZDUSDbDaily-9_28_2023-1_09_13-PM-2-356×220.png 356w, /wp-content/uploads/2023/09/45446202-HFMarketsGlobal-Live1-Hedge-HF-Markets-SV-Ltd.-NZDUSDbDaily-9_28_2023-1_09_13-PM-2-696×430.png 696w, /wp-content/uploads/2023/09/45446202-HFMarketsGlobal-Live1-Hedge-HF-Markets-SV-Ltd.-NZDUSDbDaily-9_28_2023-1_09_13-PM-2-1068×659.png 1068w, /wp-content/uploads/2023/09/45446202-HFMarketsGlobal-Live1-Hedge-HF-Markets-SV-Ltd.-NZDUSDbDaily-9_28_2023-1_09_13-PM-2-680×420.png 680w" /></a></p>
<p>AUDUSD, H4</p>
<p>Trading within range continues and intraday bias remains neutral. Further downside is expected as long as <strong>0.6510</strong> resistance holds. A break of <strong>0.6330</strong> will resume the larger downtrend to 161.8%FE projection of <strong>0.6510</strong> – <strong>0.6384</strong> drawdown and <strong>0.6464</strong> at <strong>0.6260.</strong> However, a move above <strong>0.6510</strong> would declare a short-term bottoming has formed at <strong>0.6330.</strong></p>
<p><a href="https://forextraderhub.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/45446202-HFMarketsGlobal-Live1-Hedge-HF-Markets-SV-Ltd.-NZDUSDbDaily-9_28_2023-1_03_45-PM-2.png"><img decoding="async" class="size-full wp-image-734189" src="https://forextraderhub.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/45446202-HFMarketsGlobal-Live1-Hedge-HF-Markets-SV-Ltd.-NZDUSDbDaily-9_28_2023-1_03_45-PM-2.png" alt="" srcset="/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/45446202-HFMarketsGlobal-Live1-Hedge-HF-Markets-SV-Ltd.-NZDUSDbDaily-9_28_2023-1_03_45-PM-2.png 1604w, /wp-content/uploads/2023/09/45446202-HFMarketsGlobal-Live1-Hedge-HF-Markets-SV-Ltd.-NZDUSDbDaily-9_28_2023-1_03_45-PM-2-300×167.png 300w, /wp-content/uploads/2023/09/45446202-HFMarketsGlobal-Live1-Hedge-HF-Markets-SV-Ltd.-NZDUSDbDaily-9_28_2023-1_03_45-PM-2-1024×569.png 1024w, /wp-content/uploads/2023/09/45446202-HFMarketsGlobal-Live1-Hedge-HF-Markets-SV-Ltd.-NZDUSDbDaily-9_28_2023-1_03_45-PM-2-768×427.png 768w, /wp-content/uploads/2023/09/45446202-HFMarketsGlobal-Live1-Hedge-HF-Markets-SV-Ltd.-NZDUSDbDaily-9_28_2023-1_03_45-PM-2-1536×853.png 1536w, /wp-content/uploads/2023/09/45446202-HFMarketsGlobal-Live1-Hedge-HF-Markets-SV-Ltd.-NZDUSDbDaily-9_28_2023-1_03_45-PM-2-696×387.png 696w, /wp-content/uploads/2023/09/45446202-HFMarketsGlobal-Live1-Hedge-HF-Markets-SV-Ltd.-NZDUSDbDaily-9_28_2023-1_03_45-PM-2-1068×593.png 1068w, /wp-content/uploads/2023/09/45446202-HFMarketsGlobal-Live1-Hedge-HF-Markets-SV-Ltd.-NZDUSDbDaily-9_28_2023-1_03_45-PM-2-756×420.png 756w" /></a></p>
<p><strong>Click </strong><a href="https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html"><strong>here</strong></a><strong> to access our Economic Calendar</strong></p>
<p><strong>Ady Phangestu</strong></p>
<p><strong>Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Indonesia</strong></p>
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