All that glitters
<p>I’ve been looking for longer term macro plays when it comes to equities while still doing intraday stuff in FX land. One setup that’s really caught my eye over the last few weeks is gold.</p>
<p>I tweeted this today:</p>
<blockquote><p>This <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%24GLD&src=ctag&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">$GLD</a> chart is gorgeous. <br><br>The 100% fib extension puts us at $104. If we do it in the same time frame as the last leg down we’d see it sometime in April.<br><br>Full disclosure, I have 6/21 puts that I just doubled down on. <a href="https://t.co/5Yx38O0Dpk">pic.twitter.com/5Yx38O0Dpk</a>— Cambist (@CambistTrades) <a href="https://twitter.com/CambistTrades/status/1086364667864383489?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 18, 2019</a></p></blockquote>
<p>Here’s the chart if you don’t want to click through:</p>
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<figure><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" width="1024" height="556" src="https://www.forexmademillionaire.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Screenshot-2019-01-18-15.46.39-1024×556.png" alt="" class="wp-image-2170" srcset="https://www.forexmademillionaire.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Screenshot-2019-01-18-15.46.39-1024×556.png 1024w, https://www.forexmademillionaire.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Screenshot-2019-01-18-15.46.39-300×163.png 300w, https://www.forexmademillionaire.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Screenshot-2019-01-18-15.46.39-768×417.png 768w, https://www.forexmademillionaire.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Screenshot-2019-01-18-15.46.39.png 1544w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption><br></figcaption></figure>
<p>This is a weekly chart, so it’s going to take some time to play out, obviously. But the break and retest of that trend line is just gorgeous. It’s hard not to appreciate technical analysis and all the psychology that can be seen on a single chart.</p>
<p>I’ve drawn a Fibonacci extension. A 100% extension would put us at $104 here in $GLD. </p>
<p>The last leg down from April to August took just over four months to complete. If January was the high for $GLD and this leg down happens with similar momentum, we would expect to hit our target sometime in the first half of April.</p>
<p>I hadn’t given this chart that much thought when I first put on my June 21st, $115 puts a week or so ago. They’ve been a bit underwater. </p>
<p>But after today’s drop I doubled down on those same puts. The position is currently down about 8%. </p>
<p>I haven’t done a long-term play like this in awhile, so I’m excited to see how it turns out.</p>
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