Nomura forecasts EUR/USD to 1.02, toward parity is "very possible" if oil price stays firm

<p>Nomura analyst speaking with Bloomberg TV on Monday:</p><ul><li>EUR/USD towards 1.02 &amp; towards parity is very possible as long
as oil prices don't find a way to
collapse</li><li>U.S yields … U.S rates
suggest that EUR/USD should be at
1.01 to 1.03 already and if oil gets to $100/bbl to $110/bbl it's very easy for the Euro area to see
their currency weaker because they are
an energy importer</li><li> EUR/USD … it's been a zigzag up down up
down … looks to be
finally an exit of that range band price
action … looks more like a
trend now</li></ul><p>On the risks to this lower EUR view:</p><ul><li>the
main risk is if the US data starts to
come in soft and U.S yields stop
climbing</li></ul><p>And how the shutdown avoidance supports the USD:</p><ul><li>U.S government shutdown has
been avoided which means that we're
going to get non-farm payrolls, we're
going to get the jolts data and
crucially we're not going to get all
those government workers laid off</li><li> it was
going to be really difficult for the
market to buy the dollar with initial
claims jobless claims spiking higher on
Thursday well that shouldn't happen now
thanks to that government shutdown being
avoided</li></ul><p>—</p><p>EUR/USD daily chart below. Has it now formed a downtrend, has it busted out of the range? What do the folks pof ForexLive say – let me know in the comments!</p>

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.