Philadelphia Fed September manufacturing index -13.5 vs -0.7 estimate

<ul><li>For the full report <a href="https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/frbp/assets/surveys-and-data/mbos/2023/bos0923.pdf?la=en&amp;hash=B5614B26FB1C7F52D519C4F8C6A3973D" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">CLICK HERE</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/august-us-philly-fed-manufacturing-index-120-vs-100-expected-20230817/" target="_blank" rel="follow">Prior month</a> 12.0</li><li>Philly Fed business index -13.5 vs -0.7 estimate. This is the 14th negative reading in the past 16 months</li><li>Capital expenditures six-month forward 7.5 versus -4.5 last month</li><li>Employment -5.7 versus -6.0</li><li>Prices paid 25.7 versus 20.8 last month</li><li>prices received 14.8 versus 14.1 last month</li><li>New orders -10.2 versus 16.0 last month.</li><li>Shipments -3.2 versus 5.7 last month.</li><li>Unfilled orders -13.6 versus -4.8 last month</li><li>delivery times -14.9 versus -7.0 last month.</li><li>Inventories 8.9 versus -10.2 last month.</li><li>Average employee work 4.7 versus 6.3 last month</li></ul><p>The six-month forward</p><ul><li> business activity index came in 11.1 versus 3.9 last month</li><li>new orders 25.6 versus 18.2 last month</li><li>employment 6.5 versus 12.0 last month</li><li>shipments 30.5 versus 14.9 last month</li><li>prices paid 48.0 versus 53.0 last month</li><li>prices received 36.5 versus 40.6 last month</li><li>average work week -1.3 versus 8.3 last month</li></ul><p>On the surface, the headline number was weaker but things like prices paid remained elevated. The six-month forward business index was also stronger although there was some declines in the prices paid and received indices. New orders however were higher as were shipments expectations.</p><p>The detailed summary from the Philadelphia Fed said:</p><ul><li>Manufacturing activity in the region declined in September, reversing positive trends seen in August.</li><li>Key indicators like general activity, new orders, and shipments returned to negative territory.<ul><li>General activity index fell from 12.0 in August to -13.5 in September.</li><li>New orders index dropped from 16.0 to -10.2.</li><li>Shipments index declined 9 points to -3.2.</li></ul></li><li>Employment continued to decline, with the index at -5.7.<ul><li>19% of firms reported a decrease in employment, 14% reported an increase, and 67% reported no change.</li></ul></li><li>Price indexes remained stable and near long-run averages.<ul><li>Prices paid diffusion index rose 5 points to 25.7.</li><li>Current prices received index was little changed at 14.8.</li></ul></li><li>Production and capacity utilization showed little change.<ul><li>Median current capacity utilization rate remained at 70 to 80%.</li></ul></li><li>Labor supply was reported as a constraint by some firms, but 34% indicated it was not a constraint.</li><li>Supply chains were not a constraint for 46% of firms, up from 27% in June.</li><li>Future outlook:<ul><li>Most firms expect impacts of various factors to stay the same.</li><li>22% expect COVID-19 impacts to worsen, up from 0% in June.</li><li>24% expect worsening impacts from energy markets.</li><li>Over one-fifth expect the impacts of financial capital to worsen.</li></ul></li></ul>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.