GBPJPY Technical Analysis – Breakout or Fakeout?

<p>UK:</p><ul><li>The BoE <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boe-raises-bank-rate-by-25-bps-to-525-as-expected-20230803/">hiked by 25 bps</a> as expected at the last
meeting. </li><li>The central bank seems to be leaning
more on the less hawkish side as a key line in the statement was tweaked to
indicate the propensity for a “higher for longer” stance rather than keeping
with additional rate hikes. </li><li>Key economic data like the latest <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-august-payrolls-change-0k-vs-97k-prior-20230912/">employment report</a> showed a very high wage growth
despite the rising unemployment rate, and the <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-july-cpi-68-vs-68-yy-expected-20230816/">UK CPI</a> beat expectations the last month pointing to a
stagflation. </li><li>The <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-august-flash-services-pmi-487-vs-510-expected-20230823/">UK PMIs</a> recently missed expectations across the board
with the Services sector plunging into contraction.</li><li>The market expects the BoE to hike
by 25 bps this week and then remaining on hold for an extended period of time.</li></ul><p>Japan:</p><ul><li>The <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boj-announce-no-change-to-yield-curve-control-ycc-and-no-monetary-policy-change-20230728/">BoJ kept everything unchanged</a> as expected at the last meeting but
tweaked the YCC policy keeping the target band unchanged but giving more
flexibility with a hard cap at 1.00%. </li><li>The <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/japan-core-core-cpi-data-comes-in-above-4-again-hits-43-in-july-20230817/">Japanese CPI</a> data surprised to the upside
recently with the core-core reading reaching again the previous high. </li><li>The <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/japan-data-july-unemployment-rate-27-expected-25-20230828/">Unemployment Rate</a> surprisingly increased recently,
although it remains near cycle lows.</li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/bank-of-japan-governor-ueda-says-his-focus-is-on-a-quiet-exit-reducing-monetary-easing-20230910/">BoJ Governor Ueda</a> last week said that his focus is on
a quiet exit from the monetary easing and added that the BoJ should have enough
data by year end to decide how to proceed.</li><li>The <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/japan-july-real-wages-fall-25-yy-and-household-spending-falls-5-yy-20230907/">Japanese wage data</a> last week showed a slowing in wage
growth, and this is something the BoJ focuses on particularly. </li></ul><p>GBPJPY Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe</p><p>On the daily chart, we can see that we had a major <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-divergence-20220429/">divergence</a> with the
<a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-macd-20220427/">MACD</a> which is
generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, the first target for the pullback was the <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/">trendline</a> and the
38.2% <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/">Fibonacci retracement</a> level.
This is where the buyers are piling in with a defined risk below the Fibonacci
level to target a new high. The price though is slowly breaking out and it’s
not yet clear if this is going to be a fakeout or a real breakout. If the price
falls below the Fibonacci support, we will likely see the sellers piling in
even more aggressively and take the pair into the 176.32 level.</p><p>GBPJPY Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe</p><p>On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the recent
price action seems to have formed a <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Education/chart-patterns-guide-20220125/">descending triangle</a>. The
price can break on either side of the pattern and what follows is generally a
strong and sustained move in the direction of the breakout. So, if the price
breaks to the upside, we should see the buyers piling in to position for a new
high, but if it breaks to the downside, the sellers will target the 176.32
level. </p><p>GBPJPY Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe</p><p>On the 1 hour chart, we can see that
there’s nothing to do at the moment as the price is just messing around within
the triangle. For more conservative buyers, a rally back above the trendline
and the most recent swing high at 183.90 should confirm the resumption of the
uptrend and give them more conviction to target a new high. Watch out for the
UK CPI data this morning as we are likely to get a spike on either side
depending on the outcome. </p><p>Upcoming Events</p><p><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar">This week</a> has some important economic releases with the
BoE and BoJ rate decisions being the highlights. Today, we will see the latest
UK CPI data, which is expected to impact the pound a lot as it will influence
market’s expectation for the next BoE rate path. Tomorrow, the BoE is expected
to hike by 25 bps with the market likely to be focused more on the forward
guidance. On Friday, we will get the latest Japan CPI followed by the BoJ rate
decision where the central bank is expected to keep everything unchanged. Later
that day, we will also get the UK Retail Sales and PMIs data. </p>

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.