ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: BOJ official says inflation 2 dip but then accelerate

<ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/european-centralbanks-de-cos-is-speaking-on-wednesday-30-august-2023-20230830/">European Central Bank's de Cos is speaking on Wednesday, 30 August 2023</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/shanghai-composite-hks-hang-seng-both-trading-higher-still-awaiting-mortgage-rate-cuts-20230830/">Shanghai Composite &amp; HK's Hang Seng both trading higher, still awaiting mortgage rate cuts</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/toyota-resumed-operations-of-25-vehicle-production-lines-at-12-of-its-14-plants-in-japan-20230830/">Toyota resumed operations of 25 vehicle production lines at 12 of its 14 plants in Japan</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boj-policymaker-signals-chance-of-policy-tweak-early-next-year-20230830/">"BOJ policymaker signals chance of policy tweak early next year"</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/morgan-stanley-investment-management-say-us-stocks-set-for-a-strong-rally-into-year-end-20230830/">Morgan Stanley Investment Management say US stocks set for a “strong rally” into year end</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/bojs-naoki-tamura-says-its-appropriate-to-keep-easy-monetary-policy-at-present-20230830/">BOJ's Naoki Tamura says its appropriate to keep easy monetary policy at present</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/australian-data-july-building-permits-81-mm-vs-08-expected-20230830/">Australian data – July building permits -8.1% m/m (vs. -0.8% expected)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/australian-data-q2-construction-work-done-04-qq-expected-10-20230830/">Australian data – Q2 Construction work done +0.4 q/q% (expected +1.0%)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/australian-july-inflation-data-49-yy-vs-52-expected-20230830/">Australian July inflation data 4.9% y/y (vs. 5.2% expected)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/pboc-sets-usd-cny-central-rate-at-71816-vs-estimate-at-72773-20230830/">PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1816 (vs. estimate at 7.2773)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/standard-chartered-cut-their-rba-terminal-rate-forecast-by-25-basis-points-20230829/">Standard Chartered cut their RBA terminal rate forecast by 25 basis points</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/chinese-refining-giant-sinopec-sees-chinese-economy-extending-recovery-fuel-demand-up-20230829/">Chinese refining giant Sinopec sees Chinese economy extending recovery, fuel demand up</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/mufg-says-risks-for-the-eur-are-skewed-to-the-downside-including-ecb-pause-in-september-20230829/">MUFG says risks for the EUR are skewed to the downside (including ECB pause in September)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/icymi-rbas-bullock-says-inflation-is-still-too-high-itll-be-her-1-priority-as-new-gov-20230829/">ICYMI: RBA's Bullock says Inflation is still too high, it'll be her #1 priority as new gov</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/new-zealand-july-building-permits-52-mm-vs-02-expected-20230829/">New Zealand July building permits -5.2% m/m (vs. +0.2% expected)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/toyota-is-planning-a-huge-increases-in-factory-output-globally-and-domestically-20230829/">Toyota is planning a huge increase in factory output, globally and domestically</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/announcement-of-chinese-mortgage-rate-cuts-likely-today-20230829/">Announcement of Chinese mortgage rate cuts likely today</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Cryptocurrency/icymi-bitcoin-jump-as-grayscale-wins-lawsuit-against-the-sec-20230829/">ICYMI – Bitcoin jump as Grayscale wins lawsuit against the SEC</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/australian-monthly-inflation-data-due-soon-previews-20230829/">Australian monthly inflation data due soon – previews</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/private-oil-survey-data-shows-much-larger-headline-crude-draw-than-was-expected-20230829/">Private oil survey data shows much larger headline crude draw than was expected</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/hsbc-like-setting-long-trades-into-risk-assets-above-all-into-us-equities-20230829/">HSBC like setting long trades into risk assets, "above all into US equities"</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/fedex-will-hike-shipping-rates-customs-fees-from-january-1-2024-20230829/">FedEx will hike shipping rates, customs fees from January 1 2024</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/strong-day-for-us-stocks-but-indices-on-pace-for-declines-this-month-20230829/">Strong day for US stocks, but indices on pace for declines this month</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/ft-report-goldman-sachs-bought-us-and-uk-companies-using-china-state-money-20230829/">FT report – Goldman Sachs bought US and UK companies using China state money</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/trade-ideas-thread-wednesday-30-august-2023-20230829/">Trade ideas thread – Wednesday, 30 August 2023</a></li></ul><p>Tech gremlins ate the Americas timezone wrap, I've included the headlines from the session here below:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/credit-agricole-month-end-fixing-model-sees-usd-buying-strongest-signal-in-usdcad-20230829/">Credit Agricole month-end fixing model sees USD buying, strongest signal in USD/CAD</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usd-moves-to-new-lows-yields-trade-near-lows-stocks-near-highs-20230829/">USD moves to new lows. Yields trade near lows. Stocks near highs</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/the-us-dollar-is-crumbling-a-squeeze-or-something-fundamental-20230829/">The US dollar is crumbling: A squeeze or something fundamental?</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/have-excess-pandemic-savings-run-out-20230829/">Have excess pandemic savings run out?</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/brent-crude-oil-climbs-1-to-settle-at-the-highest-in-a-week-20230829/">Brent crude oil climbs $1 to settle at the highest in a week</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/technical-look-at-major-cross-currency-pairs-a-look-at-the-eurgbp-eurjpy-and-gbpjpy-20230829/">Technical look at major cross currency pairs: A look at the EURGBP, EURJPY and GBPJPY</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/the-market-is-pricing-in-a-soft-landing-with-no-further-rate-hikes-20230829/">The market is pricing in a soft landing with no further rate hikes</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-sells-7-year-notes-at-4212-vs-4232-wi-20230829/">US sells 7-year notes at 4.212% vs 4.232% WI</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdcad-cant-extend-above-yesterdays-high-and-falls-to-100-hour-ma-support-target-20230829/">USDCAD can't extend above yesterday's high and falls to 100 hour MA support target</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdchf-moves-lower-and-tests-the-100-bar-ma-on-4-hour-chart-20230829/">USDCHF moves lower and tests the 100 bar MA on 4-hour chart</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/apple-sends-invite-for-september-12-launch-event-stock-is-up-17-20230829/">Apple sends invite for September 12 launch event. Stock is up 1.7%</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdjpy-falls-to-a-cluster-of-support-20230829/">USDJPY falls to a cluster of support</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/european-equity-close-uk-returns-from-holiday-with-a-flourish-20230829/">European equity close: UK returns from holiday with a flourish</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Cryptocurrency/bitcoin-surges-to-the-upside-what-are-the-technicals-telling-us-now-20230829/">Bitcoin surges to the upside. What are the technicals telling us now?</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/usdjpy-continues-slide-as-economy-questioned-20230829/">USD/JPY continues slide as economy questioned. The pair nears 146.00</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/sp-and-nasdaq-trade-above-their-50-day-moving-average-20230829/">S&amp;P and NASDAQ trade above their 50 day moving average</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/eurusd-runs-higher-after-weaker-data-20230829/">EURUSD runs higher after weaker data. Runs up to 200 hour moving average at 1.08472</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/bitcoin-jumps-as-grayscale-wins-lawsuit-against-the-sec-20230829/">Bitcoin jumps as Grayscale wins lawsuit against the SEC</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/this-is-what-the-end-of-the-fed-hiking-cycle-looks-like-20230829/">This is what the end of the Fed hiking cycle looks like</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-august-consumer-confidence-1061-vs-1160-expected-20230829/">US August consumer confidence 106.1 vs 116.0 expected</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/jolts-job-openings-for-july-8827m-versus-9465m-estimate-20230829/">JOLTs job openings for July 8.827M versus 9.465M estimate</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-caseshiller-20-city-home-price-index-09-mm-vs-08-expected-20230829/">US June CaseShiller 20-city home price index +0.9% m/m vs +0.8% expected</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/kickstart-your-forex-trading-day-a-technical-look-at-the-eurusd-usdjpy-and-gbpusd-20230829/">Kickstart your forex trading day. A technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD.</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/best-buy-warns-on-continuing-consumer-softness-20230829/">Best Buy warns on continuing consumer softness</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-usd-is-the-strongest-and-the-jpy-is-the-weakest-as-the-na-session-begins-20230829/">The USD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the NA session begins</a></li></ul><p>OK, back to the Asia session. Bank
of Japan monetary policy board member Naoki Tamura spoke and dropped this
into the conversation:</p><ul><li>Japan's
inflation likely to slow for time being, then accelerate moderately
again</li><li>Can't
rule out chance inflation may overshoot expectations</li></ul><p>This
is a different tone than what we have heard from the Bank of Japan.
Over, and over, and over again Bank officials have said they expect
inflation to decline from around September/October 2023, this
addition of “then accelerate moderately again” from Tamura is
something new. I’m reading it as a (very) early sign the Bank is
assessing some reduction in its ultra-easy policy.
</p><ul><li>
"It's
appropriate at this stage to sustain monetary easing, and earnestly
scrutinise wage and price developments," Tamura said a speech to
business leaders. "But I'm hoping that around January through
March next year, we will have further clarity" on whether Japan
can sustainably meet the bank's inflation target through wage and
price data available by then, he said.</li></ul><p>Now,
don’t go betting the farm on the yen just yet, but the time is on
the horizon to be alert for some sort of move from the BoJ – Tamura
flagging Q1 2024. USD/JPY didn’t do a lot today. After dropping
back to lows under 145.75 it popped above 146 and remains above
146.20 as I update.
</p><p>Also
from the timezone of interest today were July (month) inflation data
from Australia. At 4.9% y/y it came in well under the consensus
estimate of 5.2%. While the prospect of a September Reserve Bank of
Australia cash rate hike was small this result today locks in an ‘on
hold’ September decision (the meeting is on the 5th).
Monthly CPI data are not as complete as quarterly CPI data, so while
today’s data teases us that the RBA peak cash rate may have been
reached we await confirmation from Q3 CPI due on October 25, ahead of
the November 7 RBA meeting.
</p><p>Early
in the session, late in the US afternoon really, were
privately-surveyed oil inventory data. These showed a much, much
larger oil stock drawdown than was expected. Distillate and Gasoline
stocks rose. For more, see bullets above.
</p><p>Ranges
for major FX here were not large. AUD/USD dipped after the inflation
data, dragging NZD/USD with it. EUR, GBP, CAD are all a few tics down
against the USD also.
</p><p>Asian
equity markets climbed to 2 weeks highs:</p><ul><li><p>
Japan’s
Nikkei 225 +0.9%</p></li><li><p>
China’s
Shanghai Composite +0.1%</p></li><li><p>
Hong
Kong’s Hang Seng +0.6%</p></li><li><p>
South
Korea’s KOSPI +0.7%</p></li><li><p>
Australia’s
S&amp;P/ASX 200 +1.3%
</p></li></ul><p>Bitcoin update after the Grayscale news hit during the US timezone:</p>

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.