EUR/USD – ECB may be convinced to hold in September after latest data

<p><a href="https://api.addthis.com/oexchange/0.8/forward/facebook/offer?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.marketpulse.com%2Fforex%2Feur%2Feur-usd-ecb-may-be-convinced-to-hold-in-september-after-latest-data%2Fcerlam&amp;pubid=ra-525512e4690e068c&amp;title=Marketpulse%20%7C%20Home&amp;ct=1" target="_blank"><img src="https://cache.addthiscdn.com/icons/v3/thumbs/32×32/facebook.png" border="0" alt="Facebook" /></a><a href="https://api.addthis.com/oexchange/0.8/forward/twitter/offer?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.marketpulse.com%2Fforex%2Feur%2Feur-usd-ecb-may-be-convinced-to-hold-in-september-after-latest-data%2Fcerlam&amp;pubid=ra-525512e4690e068c&amp;title=Marketpulse%20%7C%20Home&amp;ct=1" target="_blank"><img src="https://cache.addthiscdn.com/icons/v3/thumbs/32×32/twitter.png" border="0" alt="Twitter" /></a><a href="https://api.addthis.com/oexchange/0.8/forward/email/offer?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.marketpulse.com%2Fforex%2Feur%2Feur-usd-ecb-may-be-convinced-to-hold-in-september-after-latest-data%2Fcerlam&amp;pubid=ra-525512e4690e068c&amp;title=Marketpulse%20%7C%20Home&amp;ct=1" target="_blank"><img src="https://cache.addthiscdn.com/icons/v3/thumbs/32×32/email.png" border="0" alt="Email" /></a></p><ul>
<li><strong>Eurozone Services PMI falls to 48.3 in August (50.5 expected, 50.9 in July)</strong></li>
<li><strong>Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rises to 43.7 in August (42.6 expected, 42.7 in July)</strong></li>
<li><strong>Euro testing key support against the US dollar</strong></li>
</ul>
<p class="_ParagraphElement_yyl4z_19" data-slate-block="regular" data-slate-type="paragraph" data-slate-value="{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"The data from the eurozone was no more promising, particularly Germany – the bloc's largest economy – which has had a harder year than most and looks likely to continue to do so going into next year. "}]}" data-slate-node="element"><span data-slate-node="text">The data from the eurozone was no more promising, particularly Germany – the bloc’s largest economy – which has had a harder year than most and looks likely to continue to do so going into next year. </span></p>
<p class="_ParagraphElement_yyl4z_19" data-slate-block="regular" data-slate-type="paragraph" data-slate-value="{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"There was a slight and unexpected improvement in the manufacturing number, albeit from a very low base and it still remains deep in contraction territory. But services contracted against expectations and the number was some way below forecasts and the July reading."}]}" data-slate-node="element"><span data-slate-node="text">There was a slight and unexpected improvement in the manufacturing number, albeit from a very low base and it still remains deep in contraction territory. But services contracted against expectations and the number was some way below forecasts and the July reading.</span></p>
<p class="_ParagraphElement_yyl4z_19" data-slate-block="regular" data-slate-type="paragraph" data-slate-value="{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"Interest rate probabilities were pared back in the eurozone this morning too, with traders viewing the meeting in a few weeks as a coin toss between standing pat and another 25 basis point hike. Another hike is far from guaranteed in the cycle and today's data certainly supports the case for pausing to see what impact past tightening has had. "}]}" data-slate-node="element" data-slate-fragment="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"><span data-slate-node="text">Interest rate probabilities were pared back in the eurozone this morning too, with traders viewing the meeting in a few weeks as a coin toss between standing pat and another 25 basis point hike. Another hike is far from guaranteed in the cycle and today’s data certainly supports the case for pausing to see what impact past tightening has had. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: center" data-slate-block="regular" data-slate-type="paragraph" data-slate-value="{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"The surveys alone won't be enough to convince the MPC and another rate hike in September looks a near-certainty but beyond that, traders have been paring back expectations on the back of these releases, with only one more then priced in this year. "}]}" data-slate-node="element" data-slate-fragment="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"><iframe loading="lazy" width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/wo31D9dRHaI" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen></iframe></p>
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<p><strong>Is EURUSD heading into bearish territory?</strong></p>
<p>The euro has been falling against the greenback for a month or so now, as have many other currencies as the dollar has performed well on the expectation of US rates remaining higher for longer.</p>
<p><strong>EURUSD Daily</strong></p>
<p><a href="https://www.marketpulse.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/EURUSD_2023-08-23_16-40-50.png" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img loading="lazy" class="aligncenter wp-image-807178" src="https://www.marketpulse.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/EURUSD_2023-08-23_16-40-50-1024×507.png" alt="" width="620" height="307" srcset="https://www.marketpulse.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/EURUSD_2023-08-23_16-40-50-1024×507.png 1024w, https://www.marketpulse.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/EURUSD_2023-08-23_16-40-50-300×149.png 300w, https://www.marketpulse.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/EURUSD_2023-08-23_16-40-50-768×380.png 768w, https://www.marketpulse.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/EURUSD_2023-08-23_16-40-50-1536×761.png 1536w, https://www.marketpulse.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/EURUSD_2023-08-23_16-40-50.png 1835w" sizes="(max-width: 620px) 100vw, 620px" /></a></p>
<p>Source – OANDA on Trading View</p>
<p>It’s now fallen back to a level that could tell us whether traders are viewing this as a corrective pattern or a broader reversal. While that is to a large extent a subjective view, there is a train of thought that when it’s trading above the 200-day simple moving average it’s in bullish territory, and below it’s in bearish territory. It’s worth noting there are many other ways to define it too.</p>
<p>The pair is now testing the 200-day SMA from above and this also coincides with the lows from late June and early July. A break of this could be a bearish signal, with the next test coming around the 1.0650-1.07 where the next support level from May coincides with the bottom of the 200/233-day SMA band.</p>