COT Bonds Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by SOFR 3-Months & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

<p><strong>By <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/"><u>InvestMacro</u></a></strong></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison.png"><img data-dominant-color="262b23" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #262b23;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-215032" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison.png" alt="" width="609" height="371" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison.png 609w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison-160×97.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison-150×91.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 609px) 100vw, 609px" /></a></p>
<p>Here are the latest charts and statistics for the <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/cot-reports/">Commitment of Traders (COT) reports</a> data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (<a href="https://www.cftc.gov/">CFTC</a>).</p>
<p>The latest COT data is updated through <b>Tuesday August 8th</b> and shows a quick view of how large traders (<a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-reports/#Trader_Groups">for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers</a>) were positioned in the futures markets.</p>
<h2>Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months &amp; Ultra 10-Year Bonds</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes.png"><img data-dominant-color="08090c" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #08090c;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-215031" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes.png" alt="" width="605" height="371" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes.png 605w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-160×98.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-150×92.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 605px) 100vw, 605px" /></a></p>
<p>The COT <a href="https://investmacro.com/bonds-treasuries-corporate-sovereign/">bond market</a> speculator bets were mixed this week as four out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.</p>
<p>Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (154,318 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (35,286 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (26,739 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (11,341 contracts) also showing positive weeks.</p>
<p>The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Fed Funds (-62,065 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-46,540 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-13,463 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (-12,879 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.</p>
<hr />
<div>Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Data_Tables_Labels-2.png"><u>Columns Legend</u></a></div>
<div>
<table border="1">
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Aug-08-2023</th>
<th>OI</th>
<th>OI-Index</th>
<th>Spec-Net</th>
<th>Spec-Index</th>
<th>Com-Net</th>
<th>COM-Index</th>
<th>Smalls-Net</th>
<th>Smalls-Index</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>SOFR-3-Months</td>
<td>10,208,505</td>
<td>98</td>
<td>-54,113</td>
<td>77</td>
<td>69,346</td>
<td>23</td>
<td>-15,233</td>
<td>80</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>FedFunds</td>
<td>1,496,411</td>
<td>46</td>
<td>-193,341</td>
<td>23</td>
<td>200,419</td>
<td>77</td>
<td>-7,078</td>
<td>77</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2-Year</td>
<td>3,746,749</td>
<td>100</td>
<td>-1,109,126</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>1,009,336</td>
<td>96</td>
<td>99,790</td>
<td>96</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Long T-Bond</td>
<td>1,333,067</td>
<td>89</td>
<td>-199,555</td>
<td>20</td>
<td>155,116</td>
<td>66</td>
<td>44,439</td>
<td>81</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>10-Year</td>
<td>4,872,433</td>
<td>98</td>
<td>-691,726</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>673,553</td>
<td>91</td>
<td>18,173</td>
<td>77</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>5-Year</td>
<td>5,711,857</td>
<td>100</td>
<td>-1,230,307</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>1,185,876</td>
<td>98</td>
<td>44,431</td>
<td>93</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h2>Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months &amp; Fed Funds</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100.png"><img data-dominant-color="101721" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #101721;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-215030" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100.png" alt="" width="571" height="371" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100.png 571w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-160×104.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-150×97.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 571px) 100vw, 571px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-leaders/#specs">COT Strength Scores</a> (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (77 percent) and the Fed Funds (23 percent) lead the bond markets this week.</p>
<p>On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (2 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (3 percent), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (5 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (14 percent), the 10-Year Bond (15.4 percent) and the  US Treasury Bond (19.7 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and all are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).</p>
<p align="center"><strong>Strength Statistics:</strong><br />
Fed Funds (22.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (33.8 percent)<br />
2-Year Bond (3.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (4.1 percent)<br />
5-Year Bond (2.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)<br />
10-Year Bond (15.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (19.9 percent)<br />
Ultra 10-Year Bond (13.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (6.7 percent)<br />
US Treasury Bond (19.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (23.8 percent)<br />
Ultra US Treasury Bond (4.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (0.0 percent)<br />
SOFR 3-Months (76.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (66.1 percent)</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>10-Year Bonds &amp; Ultra 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks.png"><img data-dominant-color="180f0f" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #180f0f;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-215029" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks.png" alt="" width="571" height="371" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks.png 571w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-160×104.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-150×97.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 571px) 100vw, 571px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-leaders/#specs">COT Strength Score Trends</a> (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the 10-Year Bonds (11 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 2-Year Bonds (-8 percent) and the are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.</p>
<p>The US Treasury Bonds (-27 percent), the SOFR 3-Months (-23 percent) and the Fed Funds (-19 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.</p>
<p align="center"><strong>Strength Trend Statistics:</strong><br />
Fed Funds (-18.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-5.3 percent)<br />
2-Year Bond (-7.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-5.5 percent)<br />
5-Year Bond (-17.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-22.1 percent)<br />
10-Year Bond (10.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (10.2 percent)<br />
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-3.8 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-10.3 percent)<br />
US Treasury Bond (-27.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-27.5 percent)<br />
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-8.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-21.4 percent)<br />
SOFR 3-Months (-23.3 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-28.5 percent)</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/SR3-08-11-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/SR3-08-11-2023.png" alt="SOFR 3-Months Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -54,113 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 154,318 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -208,431 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Weak Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>SOFR 3-Months Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">17.5</td>
<td width="189">60.3</td>
<td width="187">0.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">18.0</td>
<td width="189">59.6</td>
<td width="187">0.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-54,113</td>
<td width="189">69,346</td>
<td width="187">-15,233</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">1,782,372</td>
<td width="189">6,153,817</td>
<td width="187">21,947</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">1,836,485</td>
<td width="189">6,084,471</td>
<td width="187">37,180</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">1.0 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.0 to 1</td>
<td width="187">0.6 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">76.7</td>
<td width="189">23.3</td>
<td width="187">79.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-23.3</td>
<td width="189">23.3</td>
<td width="187">2.9</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>30-Day Federal Funds Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/FF-08-11-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/FF-08-11-2023.png" alt="Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -193,341 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -62,065 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -131,276 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>30-Day Federal Funds Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">3.6</td>
<td width="189">75.4</td>
<td width="187">2.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">16.5</td>
<td width="189">62.0</td>
<td width="187">2.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-193,341</td>
<td width="189">200,419</td>
<td width="187">-7,078</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">53,183</td>
<td width="189">1,127,668</td>
<td width="187">34,533</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">246,524</td>
<td width="189">927,249</td>
<td width="187">41,611</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.2 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.2 to 1</td>
<td width="187">0.8 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">22.7</td>
<td width="189">77.0</td>
<td width="187">77.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-18.6</td>
<td width="189">17.2</td>
<td width="187">13.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>2-Year Treasury Note Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/TU-08-11-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/TU-08-11-2023.png" alt="2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,109,126 contracts in the <a href="https://investmacro.com/all-markets-cot-futures-data/">data</a> reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -13,463 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,095,663 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>2-Year Treasury Note Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">9.9</td>
<td width="189">81.7</td>
<td width="187">6.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">39.5</td>
<td width="189">54.7</td>
<td width="187">4.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-1,109,126</td>
<td width="189">1,009,336</td>
<td width="187">99,790</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">370,316</td>
<td width="189">3,060,298</td>
<td width="187">251,275</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">1,479,442</td>
<td width="189">2,050,962</td>
<td width="187">151,485</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.3 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.5 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.7 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">3.0</td>
<td width="189">96.2</td>
<td width="187">95.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-7.7</td>
<td width="189">7.5</td>
<td width="187">5.5</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>5-Year Treasury Note Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/FV-08-11-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/FV-08-11-2023.png" alt="5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,230,307 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 26,739 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,257,046 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.2 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>5-Year Treasury Note Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">7.7</td>
<td width="189">84.3</td>
<td width="187">6.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">29.3</td>
<td width="189">63.6</td>
<td width="187">5.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-1,230,307</td>
<td width="189">1,185,876</td>
<td width="187">44,431</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">442,034</td>
<td width="189">4,816,393</td>
<td width="187">383,036</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">1,672,341</td>
<td width="189">3,630,517</td>
<td width="187">338,605</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.3 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.3 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.1 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">2.0</td>
<td width="189">98.1</td>
<td width="187">93.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-17.1</td>
<td width="189">17.0</td>
<td width="187">5.7</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>10-Year Treasury Note Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/TY-08-11-2023.png"><img data-dominant-color="d9d8db" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #d9d8db;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-215045" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/TY-08-11-2023.png" alt="" width="1000" height="860" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/TY-08-11-2023.png 1000w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/TY-08-11-2023-121×104.png 121w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/TY-08-11-2023-150×129.png 150w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/TY-08-11-2023-768×660.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px" /></a></p>
<p>The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -691,726 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -46,540 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -645,186 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.5 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>10-Year Treasury Note Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">10.8</td>
<td width="189">78.2</td>
<td width="187">8.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">25.0</td>
<td width="189">64.4</td>
<td width="187">8.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-691,726</td>
<td width="189">673,553</td>
<td width="187">18,173</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">524,694</td>
<td width="189">3,810,443</td>
<td width="187">415,794</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">1,216,420</td>
<td width="189">3,136,890</td>
<td width="187">397,621</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.4 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.2 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.0 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">15.4</td>
<td width="189">91.0</td>
<td width="187">77.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">10.6</td>
<td width="189">-5.5</td>
<td width="187">-12.5</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/TN-08-11-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/TN-08-11-2023.png" alt="Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -149,951 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 35,286 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -185,237 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Weak Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">11.3</td>
<td width="189">77.7</td>
<td width="187">9.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">19.6</td>
<td width="189">63.7</td>
<td width="187">15.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-149,951</td>
<td width="189">252,369</td>
<td width="187">-102,418</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">203,958</td>
<td width="189">1,402,515</td>
<td width="187">167,668</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">353,909</td>
<td width="189">1,150,146</td>
<td width="187">270,086</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.6 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.2 to 1</td>
<td width="187">0.6 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">13.9</td>
<td width="189">88.3</td>
<td width="187">53.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-3.8</td>
<td width="189">16.9</td>
<td width="187">-35.5</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>US Treasury Bonds Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/US-08-11-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/US-08-11-2023.png" alt="US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -199,555 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -12,879 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -186,676 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.8 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>US Treasury Bonds Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">5.8</td>
<td width="189">76.9</td>
<td width="187">14.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">20.8</td>
<td width="189">65.2</td>
<td width="187">11.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-199,555</td>
<td width="189">155,116</td>
<td width="187">44,439</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">77,132</td>
<td width="189">1,024,818</td>
<td width="187">195,687</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">276,687</td>
<td width="189">869,702</td>
<td width="187">151,248</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.3 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.2 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.3 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">19.7</td>
<td width="189">65.9</td>
<td width="187">80.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-27.4</td>
<td width="189">29.3</td>
<td width="187">1.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/UB-08-11-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/UB-08-11-2023.png" alt="Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -445,088 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 11,341 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -456,429 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">5.7</td>
<td width="189">82.7</td>
<td width="187">11.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">34.2</td>
<td width="189">57.0</td>
<td width="187">8.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-445,088</td>
<td width="189">402,286</td>
<td width="187">42,802</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">88,265</td>
<td width="189">1,291,140</td>
<td width="187">172,047</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">533,353</td>
<td width="189">888,854</td>
<td width="187">129,245</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.2 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.5 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.3 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">4.6</td>
<td width="189">95.0</td>
<td width="187">77.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-8.6</td>
<td width="189">21.9</td>
<td width="187">-22.4</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<p>Article <strong>By InvestMacro</strong> – <b>Receive our weekly <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-newsletter/">COT Newsletter</a></b></p>
<p><strong>*</strong><a href="https://www.investmacro.com/cot-reports/">COT Report</a>: The <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-data/">COT data</a>, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.</p>
<p>The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-reports/">commercial hedgers</a> (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their <a href="https://investmacro.com/open-interest-analysis/">open interest</a> (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria <a href="https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm">here</a>.</p>