Morgan Stanley expect a final rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia in November

<p>Morgan Stanley on a Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike still to come:</p><ul><li>The RBA now appears comfortably in data-dependent mode,
with little suggestion that it needs to front-load the
tightening that is incorporated in its forecasts </li><li>However, its
inflation path suggests little room for surprises</li><li>As such, we now expect a final rate hike at the next
forecast update in November, lowering our terminal rate forecast
from 4.60% to 4.35%. The risk to our forecast is a more extended
period on hold.</li></ul><p>Comments come after the RBA left its cash rate on hold again this month:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/rba-leaves-cash-rate-unchanged-at-410-for-a-second-straight-meeting-20230801/" target="_blank" data-article-link="true">RBA leaves cash rate unchanged at 4.10% for a second straight meeting</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/forexlive-european-fx-news-wrap-aussie-knocked-lower-by-rba-yen-fall-extends-20230801/" target="_blank" data-article-link="true">ForexLive European FX news wrap: Aussie knocked lower by RBA</a></li></ul><p>Of the big four banks locally here in Australia, only NAB expect another rate hike:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/national-australia-bank-expect-one-more-reserve-bank-of-australia-rate-hike-20230802/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">National Australia Bank expect one more Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike</a></li></ul><p>ANZ, CBA and <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/westpac-says-reserve-bank-of-australia-now-on-hold-until-first-rate-cut-in-september-2024-20230803/" target="_blank" rel="follow">Westpac</a> all expect the RBA hiking cycle is over. </p><p>RBA cash rate vs. inflation</p>

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.