Daily Market Outlook, July 18, 2023

Daily Market Outlook, July 18, 2023Munnelly’s Market Commentary… Asian equity markets failed to sustain the momentum from Wall Street. The Nikkei 225 initially made gains upon its return from a long weekend but eventually erased those gains, reflecting weakness in its peers. The Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite were also lower, with property stocks leading the declines in Hong Kong. This was attributed to the long-delayed results of Evergrande, the world's most indebted developer, which reported significant net losses for 2021 and 2022. The US-China relationship remained in focus, with amicable comments in talks between US Climate Envoy Kerry and China's top diplomat Wang Yi. However, reports that the US aims to propose investment limits on China and potential new curbs on chips and semiconductor-making devices tempered the positive sentiment.In the US, the economy has so far exceeded expectations of a recession. GDP grew in the first quarter and is likely to have continued growing in the second quarter. Data releases for June, including retail sales, industrial production, and business inventories, will provide further insights into the likely economic outcome. Despite ongoing headwinds from higher interest rates and inflation, US retail sales and consumer spending have surpassed expectations this year. It is expected that consumer spending will continue to contribute positively to Q2 GDP growth. However, the outlook for the second half of 2023 remains uncertain.While there have been reports of struggles in the manufacturing sector globally, official industrial production measures have been relatively strong, outperforming unofficial sources such as the ISM surveys. Another small increase in output is predicted for June, potentially supported by incentives in the US to encourage "green" investment in the sector.CFTC Data As Of 14-07-23USD net spec short fell a touch in the Jul 5-11 period as $IDX slid 1.37%Fairly serious moves among majors w/hardly any position changesSuggest a fair amount of position replacement as specs were getting stoppedEUR$ +1.2% in period, specs -2,675 contracts into strength now +140,162$JPY -2.84% in period after breaching 145 last wk, specs buy 738 contractsGBP$ +1.73% as BoE seen a cointoss for +50bp Aug 3, specs +7,798 now +58,063CHF specs relatively active -4,503 contracts now short 7,907$CAD +0.06%, Aussie -0.06% specs sell less than 1k contractsBTC fell a scant 0.74%, specs +221 on dip now short 1,855 contracts(Source: Reuters)FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut(1BLN+ represent larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)EUR/USD: 1.1100-10 (5BLN), 1.1225 (706M)GBP/USD: 1.3010 (852M), 1.3130-40 (300M). EUR/GBP: 0.8580 (300M)AUD/USD: 0.6800 (1BLN), 0.6815 (242M), 0.6850 (1.1BLN), 0.6865 (358M)0.6875-80 (450M), 0.6885-95 (807M). NZD/USD: 0.6400 (400M)AUD/NZD: 1.0800 (603M), 1.0850 (627M), 1.0900 (535M)USD/CAD: 1.3200 (200M), 1.3240 (525M). EUR/JPY: 155.50 (230M)USD/JPY: 138.0 (234M), 139.50 (481M), 139.75-85 (485M)Overnight Newswire Updates of NoteStocks Rise To Kick Off Busy Week Of Earnings ReportsRBA Hit Pause As Policy Clearly Restrictive, Risking GrowthChina Recovery Uneven And Differentiated By Sector, Moody’s SaysChina Likely To Cut RRR In Third Quarter To Boost Economy – CSJUS Limits On China Tech Investment To Be Narrow And SlowUS Banks Face Stiffer Mortgage Capital Rule Than Basel StandardMore Americans Are Getting Turned Down For Loans, Fed Data ShowsECB's Visco: Inflation May Drop More Quickly Than ForecastOfficials: EU's AI Lobbying Blitz Gets Lukewarm Response In AsiaDollar Teeters Near One-Year Low; Euro Scales 17-Month PeakDollar’s Painful Rout Looks Overdone, Says Barclays FX ExecutiveBofA: Yen Could Fall In 2024 As Officials Face 'Policy Trilemma'HSBC: Dollar May Weaken As Fed’s Hiking Cycle Nears EndGoldman Sachs Says This Yield Curve Inversion Is ‘Different’BofA Says Credit Market Bears In Retreat As Recession Fears EaseOil Holds Two-Day Drop As China Angst Offsets Russia Export CutsAsia Shares Mixed Tuesday Amid Lingering China ConcernsBofA Says Earnings Season Is Off To A Better-Than-Average StartJPMorgan Strategists Predict Further Euro-Area Stock WeaknessJPMorgan’s Kolanovic Sees ‘Modestly Wider’ Path To Soft Landing(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4490Below 4480 opens 4460Primary support is 4370Primary objective is 463020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishEURUSD Intraday Bullish Above Bearsih Below 1.12Below 1.1150 opens 1.1050Primary support is 1.10Primary objective is 1.1320 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishGBPUSD: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.30Below 1.2830 opens 1.2710Primary support  is 1.26Primary objective 1.385020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishUSDJPY Bullish Above Bearish Below 139.60Above 139.60 opens 141.80Primary resistance 142Primary objective is 136.2020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearishAUDUSD Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below .6800Below .6795 opens .6750Primary support  is .6448Primary objective is .700020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullishBTCUSD Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 30000Below 29400 opens 28600Primary support  is 28400Primary objective is 3275020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearish