Here are 2 factors needed for AUD to move higher (above 0.70 towards 0.71) – RBA isn't one

<p>The Reserve Bank of Australia minutes ar due today, preview here:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/economic-calendar-in-asia-tuesday-18-july-2023-rba-july-meeting-minutes-20230717/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">Economic calendar in Asia Tuesday, 18 July 2023 – RBA July meeting minutes</a></li></ul><p>Mizuho with a very pertinent summary of the AUD and the RBA:</p><ul><li>A re-assessment of RBA risks are ripe with a new governor … and in the context of Fed expectations shift. And to be sure, markets may still be anticipating greater patience, but not an imminent pivot. In other words, a tightening bias being retained. <ul><li>Nonetheless, this is not likely to be associated with unbridled AUD bullishness. </li><li>For one, a more unfiltered pass-through of China's industrial/invetment shortfall alongside stimulus disappointments through the commodities amplification channel will likely subdue AUD upside. This seen dampening fresh 0.69-0.70 forays. </li><li>What's more, the RBA's more apparent restraint could also factor in. </li></ul></li><li>All said, we expect AUD to consolidate (mostly) above 0.68 with shallow 0.69+ bounces. <ul><li>But breaching 0.70 towards 0.71 with confidence may require another bearish USD wave and/or China optimism.</li></ul></li></ul><p>—</p><p>Bolding is mine, keep an eye on these. </p>

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.