COT Bonds Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by 10-Year Treasury Bonds
<p><strong>By <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/"><u>InvestMacro</u></a></strong></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison-1.png"><img data-dominant-color="272c24" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #272c24;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-214421" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison-1.png" alt="" width="609" height="371" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison-1.png 609w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison-1-160×97.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison-1-150×91.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 609px) 100vw, 609px" /></a></p>
<p>Here are the latest charts and statistics for the <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/cot-reports/">Commitment of Traders (COT) reports</a> data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (<a href="https://www.cftc.gov/">CFTC</a>).</p>
<p>The latest COT data is updated through <b>Tuesday July 11th</b> and shows a quick view of how large traders (<a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-reports/#Trader_Groups">for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers</a>) were positioned in the futures markets.</p>
<h2>Weekly Speculator Changes led by 10-Year Treasury Bonds</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-1.png"><img data-dominant-color="080a0d" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #080a0d;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-214420" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-1.png" alt="" width="605" height="371" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-1.png 605w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-1-160×98.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-1-150×92.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 605px) 100vw, 605px" /></a></p>
<p>The COT <a href="https://investmacro.com/bonds-treasuries-corporate-sovereign/">bond market</a> speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.</p>
<p>Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 10-Year Bonds (145,541 contracts) with the Ultra Treasury Bonds (17,660 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (8,945 contracts) , and also showing positive weeks.</p>
<p>The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-203,437 contracts), the Fed Funds (-58,101 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-26,270 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-13,274 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-8,572 contracts)also registering lower bets on the week.</p>
<hr />
<div>Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Data_Tables_Labels-2.png"><u>Columns Legend</u></a></div>
<div>
<table border="1">
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Jul-11-2023</th>
<th>OI</th>
<th>OI-Index</th>
<th>Spec-Net</th>
<th>Spec-Index</th>
<th>Com-Net</th>
<th>COM-Index</th>
<th>Smalls-Net</th>
<th>Smalls-Index</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>SOFR-3-Months</td>
<td>9,506,863</td>
<td>91</td>
<td>36,402</td>
<td>83</td>
<td>-14,936</td>
<td>17</td>
<td>-21,466</td>
<td>76</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>FedFunds</td>
<td>1,440,370</td>
<td>41</td>
<td>-164,859</td>
<td>24</td>
<td>184,514</td>
<td>77</td>
<td>-19,655</td>
<td>52</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2-Year</td>
<td>3,678,629</td>
<td>100</td>
<td>-1,071,700</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>983,341</td>
<td>100</td>
<td>88,359</td>
<td>97</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Long T-Bond</td>
<td>1,251,592</td>
<td>63</td>
<td>-130,984</td>
<td>42</td>
<td>101,678</td>
<td>47</td>
<td>29,306</td>
<td>70</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>10-Year</td>
<td>4,800,091</td>
<td>94</td>
<td>-635,137</td>
<td>21</td>
<td>636,943</td>
<td>87</td>
<td>-1,806</td>
<td>73</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>5-Year</td>
<td>5,257,885</td>
<td>100</td>
<td>-1,056,084</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>997,944</td>
<td>97</td>
<td>58,140</td>
<td>97</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h2>Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & US Treasury Bonds</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-1.png"><img data-dominant-color="111823" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #111823;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-214419" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-1.png" alt="" width="571" height="371" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-1.png 571w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-1-160×104.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-1-150×97.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 571px) 100vw, 571px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-leaders/#specs">COT Strength Scores</a> (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (83 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (42 percent) lead the bond markets this week.</p>
<p>On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (0 percent), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (7 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).</p>
<p align="center"><strong>Strength Statistics:</strong><br />
Fed Funds (24.4 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (33.5 percent)<br />
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (1.1 percent)<br />
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (2.3 percent)<br />
10-Year Bond (20.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (6.8 percent)<br />
Ultra 10-Year Bond (14.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (15.9 percent)<br />
US Treasury Bond (42.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (39.1 percent)<br />
Ultra US Treasury Bond (7.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (0.0 percent)<br />
SOFR 3-Months (82.9 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (97.0 percent)</p>
<p> </p>
<h2>10-Year Bonds & Fed Funds top the 6-Week Strength Trends</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-1.png"><img data-dominant-color="150e0e" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #150e0e;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-214418" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-1.png" alt="" width="571" height="371" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-1.png 571w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-1-160×104.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-1-150×97.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 571px) 100vw, 571px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-leaders/#specs">COT Strength Score Trends</a> (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the 10-Year Bonds (21 percent) and the Fed Funds (2 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.</p>
<p>The US Treasury Bonds (-23 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-14 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the 2-Year Bonds (-9 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.</p>
<p align="center"><strong>Strength Trend Statistics:</strong><br />
Fed Funds (2.4 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-2.9 percent)<br />
2-Year Bond (-8.8 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-14.5 percent)<br />
5-Year Bond (-6.3 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-8.3 percent)<br />
10-Year Bond (20.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-0.9 percent)<br />
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-7.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (3.7 percent)<br />
US Treasury Bond (-23.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-31.5 percent)<br />
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-13.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-17.2 percent)<br />
SOFR 3-Months (-0.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (23.5 percent)</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/SR3-07-14-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/SR3-07-14-2023.png" alt="SOFR 3-Months Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 36,402 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -203,437 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 239,839 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Weak Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>SOFR 3-Months Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">19.7</td>
<td width="189">59.2</td>
<td width="187">0.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">19.3</td>
<td width="189">59.4</td>
<td width="187">0.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">36,402</td>
<td width="189">-14,936</td>
<td width="187">-21,466</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">1,871,733</td>
<td width="189">5,629,349</td>
<td width="187">28,673</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">1,835,331</td>
<td width="189">5,644,285</td>
<td width="187">50,139</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">1.0 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.0 to 1</td>
<td width="187">0.6 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">82.9</td>
<td width="189">17.4</td>
<td width="187">76.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-0.5</td>
<td width="189">0.9</td>
<td width="187">-3.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>30-Day Federal Funds Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/FF-07-14-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/FF-07-14-2023.png" alt="Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -164,859 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -58,101 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -106,758 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>30-Day Federal Funds Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">4.0</td>
<td width="189">73.7</td>
<td width="187">2.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">15.5</td>
<td width="189">60.9</td>
<td width="187">3.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-164,859</td>
<td width="189">184,514</td>
<td width="187">-19,655</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">57,905</td>
<td width="189">1,060,998</td>
<td width="187">30,921</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">222,764</td>
<td width="189">876,484</td>
<td width="187">50,576</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.3 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.2 to 1</td>
<td width="187">0.6 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">24.4</td>
<td width="189">77.1</td>
<td width="187">52.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">2.4</td>
<td width="189">-0.9</td>
<td width="187">-19.3</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>2-Year Treasury Note Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/TU-07-14-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/TU-07-14-2023.png" alt="2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,071,700 contracts in the <a href="https://investmacro.com/all-markets-cot-futures-data/">data</a> reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -13,274 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,058,426 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>2-Year Treasury Note Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">10.6</td>
<td width="189">81.6</td>
<td width="187">6.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">39.7</td>
<td width="189">54.9</td>
<td width="187">4.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-1,071,700</td>
<td width="189">983,341</td>
<td width="187">88,359</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">390,469</td>
<td width="189">3,003,415</td>
<td width="187">246,614</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">1,462,169</td>
<td width="189">2,020,074</td>
<td width="187">158,255</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.3 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.5 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.6 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">0.0</td>
<td width="189">100.0</td>
<td width="187">96.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-8.8</td>
<td width="189">9.5</td>
<td width="187">1.7</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>5-Year Treasury Note Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/FV-07-14-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/FV-07-14-2023.png" alt="5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,056,084 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -26,270 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,029,814 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.0 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>5-Year Treasury Note Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">8.1</td>
<td width="189">83.9</td>
<td width="187">7.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">28.2</td>
<td width="189">64.9</td>
<td width="187">6.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-1,056,084</td>
<td width="189">997,944</td>
<td width="187">58,140</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">425,779</td>
<td width="189">4,410,220</td>
<td width="187">377,047</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">1,481,863</td>
<td width="189">3,412,276</td>
<td width="187">318,907</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.3 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.3 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.2 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">0.0</td>
<td width="189">97.4</td>
<td width="187">97.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-6.3</td>
<td width="189">6.8</td>
<td width="187">-0.9</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>10-Year Treasury Note Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/TY-07-14-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/TY-07-14-2023.png" alt="10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -635,137 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 145,541 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -780,678 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>10-Year Treasury Note Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">10.8</td>
<td width="189">79.1</td>
<td width="187">8.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">24.0</td>
<td width="189">65.8</td>
<td width="187">8.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-635,137</td>
<td width="189">636,943</td>
<td width="187">-1,806</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">518,205</td>
<td width="189">3,797,358</td>
<td width="187">389,650</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">1,153,342</td>
<td width="189">3,160,415</td>
<td width="187">391,456</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.4 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.2 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.0 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">20.9</td>
<td width="189">87.1</td>
<td width="187">73.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">20.9</td>
<td width="189">-12.9</td>
<td width="187">-20.4</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/TN-07-14-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/TN-07-14-2023.png" alt="Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -148,473 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,572 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -139,901 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Weak Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">9.5</td>
<td width="189">78.8</td>
<td width="187">10.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">18.0</td>
<td width="189">65.1</td>
<td width="187">15.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-148,473</td>
<td width="189">238,401</td>
<td width="187">-89,928</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">165,436</td>
<td width="189">1,371,281</td>
<td width="187">174,306</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">313,909</td>
<td width="189">1,132,880</td>
<td width="187">264,234</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.5 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.2 to 1</td>
<td width="187">0.7 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">14.2</td>
<td width="189">85.2</td>
<td width="187">60.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-7.7</td>
<td width="189">14.6</td>
<td width="187">-17.9</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>US Treasury Bonds Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/US-07-14-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/US-07-14-2023.png" alt="US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -130,984 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,945 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -139,929 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>US Treasury Bonds Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">6.2</td>
<td width="189">78.4</td>
<td width="187">14.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">16.7</td>
<td width="189">70.3</td>
<td width="187">12.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-130,984</td>
<td width="189">101,678</td>
<td width="187">29,306</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">78,154</td>
<td width="189">981,658</td>
<td width="187">180,701</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">209,138</td>
<td width="189">879,980</td>
<td width="187">151,395</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.4 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.1 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.2 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">42.0</td>
<td width="189">46.9</td>
<td width="187">69.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-23.1</td>
<td width="189">31.9</td>
<td width="187">-13.4</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/UB-07-14-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/UB-07-14-2023.png" alt="Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -432,912 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 17,660 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -450,572 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">5.4</td>
<td width="189">82.8</td>
<td width="187">11.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">33.7</td>
<td width="189">58.2</td>
<td width="187">7.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-432,912</td>
<td width="189">375,828</td>
<td width="187">57,084</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">82,032</td>
<td width="189">1,264,189</td>
<td width="187">174,380</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">514,944</td>
<td width="189">888,361</td>
<td width="187">117,296</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.2 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.4 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.5 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">7.3</td>
<td width="189">89.4</td>
<td width="187">91.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-13.7</td>
<td width="189">17.7</td>
<td width="187">-0.5</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<p>Article <strong>By InvestMacro</strong> – <b>Receive our weekly <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-newsletter/">COT Newsletter</a></b></p>
<p><strong>*</strong><a href="https://www.investmacro.com/cot-reports/">COT Report</a>: The <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-data/">COT data</a>, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.</p>
<p>The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-reports/">commercial hedgers</a> (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their <a href="https://investmacro.com/open-interest-analysis/">open interest</a> (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria <a href="https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm">here</a>.</p>
Leave a Comment