Daily Market Outlook, July 07, 2023

Daily Market Outlook, July 07, 2023Munnelly’s Market Commentary… Asian equity markets lower as global markets experienced selling pressure driven by declines on Wall Street. The Nikkei 225  opened with a slump following disappointing Household Spending data, although it later recovered some of its losses. The Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were also in negative territory due to growth concerns and ongoing trade frictions with the US. According to building society Halifax, house prices in the UK experienced a slight decline of -0.1% in June. The data indicates that the housing market stabilised during the month, with a consistent number of mortgage applications, especially from first-time buyers. However, the rising costs of borrowing and concerns about inflation have led to higher mortgage rates, which could affect affordability and potentially dampen demand in the future. Existing mortgage holders may also face rate increases as a result. These factors contribute to a more cautious outlook for the housing market going forward.In the Eurozone German industrial production figures released earlier showed a third consecutive monthly decline, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing activity.There are no major economic releases on the docket, but market participants will pay attention to speeches from ECB officials including Vice President Guindos along with the head of the Bundesbank Nagel. Stateside the focus of the day was on the monthly US labour market report, which will provide insights into the likelihood of the Federal Reserve resuming interest rate increases later in July. Expectations are for the US economy to have added 225k jobs in June, with a decline in the unemployment rate to 3.6%. However, in June, labour market indicators presented a mixed picture. Initial jobless claims showed a significant increase during the survey week, with the four-week moving average also trending higher. The employment sub-indices within S&P Global's flash PMI data eased but remained above the 50-mark, indicating expansion. The ISM manufacturing data revealed a contraction in employment, while the services gauge showed an increase in the employment index, indicating expansion. ADP's measure of payroll growth saw a notable increase, while Challenger Layoff numbers decreased. Currently, market expectations point to a potential interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in July, and it is presumed that only a substantial miss in data, coupled with weakness in other indicators, would cause a rapid repricing in the market. Robust economic data this week have led to a lifting in market expectations for the Fed's terminal rate, which is now anticipated to reach 5.45% by November 2023.CFTC Data As Of 30-06-23USD IMM net spec short in the Jun 21-27 reporting period; $IDX -0.02%EUR$ +0.38% in period, specs stayed on sidelines +379 contracts now +145,028$JPY rose 1.91%, specs -5,214 contracts now -112,870 as BoJ remains steadyRecent test of 145, tipped intervention area may stir long profit-takingGBP$ -0.1%, specs +5,386 contracts now +51,994 on rising UK rate viewBTC rose 8.86%, specs sold 2,491 contracts into strength, flip to -2,094$CAD -0.31% in period, specs +30,696 contracts short pared to -2,847AUD$ -1.49% in period, specs +10,192 contracts now -39,424BoC, RBA had been considering further rate hikes amid persistent inflationInflation stalling has weakened CAD and AUD since Jun 21, may see recent longs lighten(Source: Reuters)FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut (1BLN+ represent larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)EUR/USD: 1.0800 (854M),1.0850 (1.1BLN), 1.0880 (454M), 1.0900 (1.3BLN)1.0920-25 (918M), 1.0970 (1BLN), 1.1000 (2.2BLN), 1.1010-15 (1.1BLN)GBP/USD: 1.2625-35 (351M), 1.2825 (478M)EUR/GBP: 0.8600 (265M), 0.8620 (217M)AUD/USD: 0.6600 (500M), 0.6690 (331M), 0.6700 (1.5BLN)USD/JPY: 143.00 (532M), 144.00 (359M), 145.00 (1.3BLN)EUR/NOK: 11.70 (524M)USD/CAD: 1.3300 (1.5BLN), 1.3350 (400M), 1.3400 (488M)Overnight News of NoteShares Fall In Asia After Treasury Yields SpikeUS Renews Audit Inspection Of China Firms As Tensions MountBoJ Deputy Governor Uchida Vows To Keep Yield Control For NowJapan's Wage Growth Doubles Estimates, Feeding BoJ SpeculationJapan Ex Vice FinMin Japan’s Currency May Weaken To 160 And BeyondMarket Surveys Show Wall Street Expected Less Hawkish Fed OutlookECB's Lagarde: We Still Have Work To Do To Bring Infl Back To TargetEU Paves Way To Quit International Accord On Energy InvestmentsChinese State Media Says Yuan To Be Defended If NecessaryCrypto Trading Volume Dropped In Second Quarter To Lowest Since 2019Oil On Track For Second Straight Weekly Gain On Resilient DemandShares Fall In Asia After Strong US Data Sent Treasury Yields HigherTwitter Sends Meta Cease-And-Desist Letter Over New Threads AppAbbVie Trims Full-year Profit Forecast On Higher R&D ExpensesTesla Starts To Lay Off Some Battery Workers At China FactoryElectric Car Sales Growth Slows In US As Inventory Builds UpUS FDA Grants Standard Approval Of Eisai/Biogen Alzheimer's DrugSamsung Profit Beats As Memory Chip Sector Recovers From TroughChina To End Ant Group's Regulatory Revamp With Fine Of At Least $1.1Bln(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4412Below 4400 opens 4370Primary support is 4300Primary objective is 454020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearishEURUSD Intraday Bullish Above Bearsih Below 1.0840Below 1.0840 opens 1.08Primary support is 1.07Primary objective is 1.105020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearishGBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.2650Below 1.26 opens 1.2550Primary support  is 1.26Primary objective 1.288020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishUSDJPY Bullish Above Bearish Below 143.50 Below 143 opens 142.30Primary support  is 141Primary objective is 145.5020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearishAUDUSD Bias:Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below .6660Below .6600 opens .6550Primary support  is .6448Primary objective is .691720 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullishBTCUSD Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 30000 Below 29400 opens 28600Primary support  is 28400Primary objective is 3275020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearish