Daily Market Outlook, April 16, 2020

<p><b>Asian stocks fell on Thursday after U.S. stock retraced from recent high on Wednesday night.</b><span>  </span><b>Risk aversion is coming back to the market</b><span> after a slew of sluggish data from both corporate earnings and macroeconomic releases.</span><b> Treasury yields ticked lower and the USD rebounded</b><span>. Earning reports have offered a reality check on the impact of coronavirus to the U.S. economy. Goldman Sachs earned $1.21 billion in the quarter, or $3.11 a share, missing the $3.35 expectation. The profits tumbled 46% while its revenue beat estimates thanks to a good performance from its bond-trading arm. Both Bank of America and Citigroup have missed expectations due to huge loan provision. Nevertheless, on the macro side,</span><b> U.S. retail sales and factory output posted a historic drop in March</b><span> and economists are expecting that April’s results could be even worse.</span></p>
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<p><span>On Wednesday, the US reported its biggest weekly inventory stockpile on record. Crude stocks in the US surged by 19 million barrels last week. The inventory report came shortly after the International Energy Agency forecast oil demand would dive 29 million barrels a day in April to levels unseen in 25 years. IEA also said no output cut could fully offset the near-term falls facing the market. Oil stabilized after a fast drop as investors gradually priced in the worst scenario. Oil price is likely to consolidate as investors are patiently awaiting any pickup on the demand side. </span></p>
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<p><b>The dollar is regaining strength, benefiting from the renewed risk aversion.</b><span> With the US single-day death toll surging to 30,817 as per Reuters, risk aversion is back dominating the market. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund’s warning of the global recession in 2020 also weighed on the risk-tone. At the same time, CAD weakened as BoC announced it would start buying up to $50 billion in provincial debt and contribute up to $10 billion in corporate bonds to stimulate the economy. The rhetoric is more dovish than what market expected and pushed CAD lower. </span></p>
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<p><span>Gold stabilized on Wednesday, pausing before climbing higher. The severe impact of the lockdown and the huge amount of liquidity that central banks are releasing have pushed up the demand for gold as a safe haven.</span><b> While some factors are unfavorable to the gold price, including the slowing infections seen in most countries, gold is still edging up when this coming earning season is expecting more uncertainties. </b></p>
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<p><span>Copper is still consolidating waiting for key releases on Friday </span><b>including China GDP, industrial production and retail sales.</b><span> There has been some good news for the metal as China bank lending expanded in March, but investors are looking for more confirmation signals before they could push copper higher. </span></p>
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<p><b>Technical &amp; Trade views</b></p>
<p><b>USDCAD (</b><b>Intraday bias: bullish above 1.4058)</b></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-41891" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/z-2-1024×466.png" alt="" width="1024" height="466" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/z-2-1024×466.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/z-2-300×137.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/z-2-768×350.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/z-2.png 1056w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></p>
<p><span>We turned bullish as price jumped above our 1st support. The 1st support happens to be a confluence level of the 23.6% fibonacci retracement  and horizontal pullback. Price is likely to bounce towards 1st resistance where the 100% fibonacci extension and 50% fibonacci retracement are. </span></p>
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<p><b>UKOIL (</b><b>Intraday bias: bullish above 27.65)</b></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-41892" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/zx-1024×463.png" alt="" width="1024" height="463" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/zx-1024×463.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/zx-300×136.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/zx-768×347.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/zx.png 1059w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></p>
<p><span>We turned bullish as price jumped above our 1st support. The 1st support happens to be a confluence level of the 100% fibonacci extension  and horizontal overlap support. Price is likely to bounce towards 1st resistance at 30.65 where the 23.6% fibonacci retracement is.</span></p>
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<p><b>XAUUSD ( </b><b>Intraday bias: bullish above 1701.52) </b></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-41893" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/zxc-1024×459.png" alt="" width="1024" height="459" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/zxc-1024×459.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/zxc-300×134.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/zxc-768×344.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/zxc.png 1063w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></p>
<p><span>We remain bullish technically as the price is bouncing off 1st support at 1701.52  towards 1st resistance is where the 100% fibonacci extension is. Ichimoku cloud is showing a further push up towards 1st resistance is possible. The 1st support happens to be where horizontal swing high isl and could serve as a key support level. </span></p>
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<p><b>XCUUSD ( </b><b>Intraday bias: Bullish above 2.3375 neutral below)</b></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-41894" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/zxcv-1024×466.png" alt="" width="1024" height="466" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/zxcv-1024×466.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/zxcv-300×137.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/zxcv-768×350.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/zxcv.png 1056w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></p>
<p><span>Our call is still valid. We remainneutral unless price supasses upside confirmation at 2.3375. Now price is approaching our new upside confirmation at 2.3375 where the important horizontal overlap resistance is. If price breaks above the upside confirmation, it will open up a bigger bounce. Our previous upside confirmation is now our 1st support, where the 50% fibonacci retracement and horizontal overlap support happen to line up well.</span></p>
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