Daily Market Outlook, April 15, 2020
<h2><strong>Daily Market Outlook, April 15, 2020 </strong></h2>
<p><b>More cautious market sentiment prevailed in Asia</b><span>, with mixed equity markets ahead of further US earnings announcements later today. The IMF yesterday said the global recession will be the worst since the Great Depression. China’s central bank cut interest rates and added liquidity into the financial system. President Trump said he will share new guidelines in the coming days for states to reopen their economies. In Europe, the number of new cases continued to fall or trend lower, as some countries gradually reopen their economy or move closer to doing so. Chancellor Merkel is set to discuss easing restrictions with German state premiers today.</span></p>
<p><b>The focus is on this afternoon’s US data releases</b><span>, with particular attention on March retail sales which will provide insights on how consumer spending is being affected by the economic shutdown. There are tremendous variations in forecasts, highlighting the scale of the uncertainty on the scale of the virus impact. Market watchers have pencilled in a fall of 6.0% on the month, led by lower discretionary spend. The consensus forecast is even weaker at -8.0%. </span></p>
<p><span><strong>US industrial production for March will also be released where</strong>, in line with the market consensus, market watchers forecast a drop of 4.0%m/m. Markets will also be watching timelier anecdotal information on the US economy. Expect another significant fall in the NY Fed Empire manufacturing survey to -35.0 in April (the same as the consensus forecast), having already dropped to -21.5 in March. The NAHB housing market index is forecast to decline below 60 (from 72) for the first time in over a year. Finally, this evening’s Fed Beige Book will provide an important update on business conditions across the US central bank’s districts during the shutdown. </span></p>
<p><b>The Fed’s Bostic is due to speak at 1800BST</b></p>
<p><b>The Bank of Canada is expected to take stock and leave policy settings on hold following a number of measures introduced last month</b><span>. Official interest rates have been reduced by a total of 150bps during March to stand at a record low of 0.25%. Markets will look for more details of its asset purchases. Governor Poloz is due to step down before the BoC’s next scheduled policy meeting on 3 June. </span></p>
<p><b>In the early hours of Thursday, the British Retail Consortium will provide an early snapshot of March retail sales,</b><span> covering the period when the lockdown began. Even before social distancing measures were introduced, official ONS figures last week showed the UK economy growing only marginally by 0.1% in the latest three months to February. </span></p>
<p><b>According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the global economy will likely suffer the worst financial crisis in 2020 since the Great Depression</b><span>, as governments worldwide grapple with the Covid19 pandemic. The Washington-based organization now expects the global economy to contract by 3% in 2020. By contrast, in January it had forecast a global GDP expansion of 3.3% for this year. The latest forecasts from the IMF also suggest that the US economy will contract by 5.9% this year. In comparison, the Eurozone is expected to shrink by 7.5%, but China is seen growing by 1.2% in 2020.</span></p>
<h3><b>Today’s Options Expiries</b><span> for 10AM New York Cut (notable size in bold)</span></h3>
<ul>
<li><span>EURUSD: </span><b>1.0890-1.0900 (1.3BLN)</b><span>, 1.0955 (233M), 1.1000 (336M)</span></li>
<li><span>USDJPY: </span><b>106.50-65 (1.1BLN)</b><span>, 106.90-107.00 (850M), 107.15-20 (515M)</span><b> 108.50-55 (1BLN)</b></li>
<li><span>AUDUSD: </span><b>0.6450 (1BLN)</b></li>
</ul>
<h3><b>Technical & Trade Views</b></h3>
<p><b>EURUSD (Intraday bias: Bullish above 1.09 targeting 1.1250)</b></p>
<p><span>EURUSD From a technical and trading perspective, daily chart has flipped bullis has per the near term volume weighted average price, the anticipated move through 1.890 has injected further upside momentum challenging the first decision point at 1.0960/80, through this area opens a test of pivotal 1.1070/80, if bulls can sustain a breach here then 1.1250/80 is the primary upside objective. On the day only a close sub 1.09 and a breach of 1.0850 would concern the bullish bias.UPDATE stuck in 1.09 -1.10 range, with massive option expiries both sides EUR 4-bln around 1.10, EUR 5+bln 1.0900-1.0875</span></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-41792" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-15-08.34.17.png" alt="" width="2184" height="1220" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-15-08.34.17.png 2184w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-15-08.34.17-300×168.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-15-08.34.17-1024×572.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-15-08.34.17-768×429.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-15-08.34.17-1536×858.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-15-08.34.17-2048×1144.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2184px) 100vw, 2184px" /></p>
<p><b>GBPUSD (Intraday bias: Bullish above 1.22 targeting 1.28)</b></p>
<p><span>GBPUSD From a technical and trading perspective, a move back through 1.24 would suggest a broader corrective phase to unwind near term overbought momentum, 1.20/1.1950 will be pivotal this week, if bulls fail to defend this area, a deeper decline could ensue to test bids and stops below 1.17 NO CHANGE IN VIEW</span></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-41793" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-15-08.34.49.png" alt="" width="2190" height="1190" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-15-08.34.49.png 2190w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-15-08.34.49-300×163.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-15-08.34.49-1024×556.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-15-08.34.49-768×417.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-15-08.34.49-1536×835.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-15-08.34.49-2048×1113.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2190px) 100vw, 2190px" /></p>
<p><b>USDJPY (intraday bias: Bearish below 109 targeting 1.0465)</b></p>
<p><span>USDJPY From a technical and trading perspective, double bottom delays downside objective with a whipsaw back to 110 before lower again. Through 107 would suggest downside targets are directly in play NO CHANGE IN VIEW</span></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-41794" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-15-08.37.10.png" alt="" width="2196" height="1220" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-15-08.37.10.png 2196w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-15-08.37.10-300×167.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-15-08.37.10-1024×569.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-15-08.37.10-768×427.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-15-08.37.10-1536×853.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-15-08.37.10-2048×1138.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2196px) 100vw, 2196px" /></p>
<p><b>AUDUSD (Intraday bias: Bullish above .6200 targeting .6430)</b></p>
<p><span>AUDUSD From a technical and trading perspective, as .6200 now acts as support look for a grind higher to set up a test of the pivotal .6430/90 area. A close through here sets bullish sights on the equality objective at .6695. Only a decline back though .6250 would concert the bullish bias. NO CHANGE IN VIEW</span></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-41795" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-15-08.37.23.png" alt="" width="2185" height="1218" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-15-08.37.23.png 2185w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-15-08.37.23-300×167.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-15-08.37.23-1024×571.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-15-08.37.23-768×428.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-15-08.37.23-1536×856.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-15-08.37.23-2048×1142.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2185px) 100vw, 2185px" /></p>
<p> </p>
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