Daily Market Outlook, August 13, 2020

<h2><span>Daily Market Outlook, August 13, 2020 </span></h2>
<p><span><strong>Asian equity market is mostly higher this morning following rises yesterday in Europe and the US</strong>. However, futures prices point to weak starts in Europe and the US today. US Federal Reserve policymakers said that this was the time for ‘strong fiscal action’ and one said that she thought a stimulus bill would be passed by Congress. However, the Democratic leader of the lower chamber commented that “we are miles apart” from agreement on a bill. White House economic adviser Kudlow said that the US economy is “entering a self sustaining expansion”. July Australian employment outstripped forecasts rising by 117.4k as both full- and part-time employment picked up.</span></p>
<p><strong>In New Zealand, a central bank spokesperson noted that the RBNZ would be happy with a lower currency and that negative interest rates were an option but not inevitable. </strong></p>
<p><span><strong>In the UK, business leaders and unions joined to urge Chancellor Sunak to extend the worker support scheme due to end in October.</strong> The UK RICS house price balance rose to a higher than expected 12% in July from an upwardly revised -13% in June. The French unemployment rate unexpectedly slipped to 7.1% in Q2 from 7.8% previously. </span></p>
<p><span><strong>The rest of today’s economic data calendar is very light with nothing of note in the UK or the Eurozone.</strong> However, in the US, the latest weekly jobless claims data will be watched for any signs that the rebound in the US economy is faltering. Last week’s update surprised significantly on the downside after unexpected rises in the previous two week’s had fuelled concerns about the outlook. Those fluctuations should caution against reading too much into volatile weekly moves but on a light day for other news the data will probably command attention. </span></p>
<p><span><strong>Tomorrow’s US calendar is much busier with retail sales and industrial production for July and a consumer sentiment measure for August all offering timely dates.</strong> A couple of US Federal Reserve policymakers are scheduled to speak although the titles for their remarks suggest that they may not say anything about the near-term monetary policy outlook. If they do touch on economic developments they are likely to echo other recent comments that noted downside risks for the economy and called for more fiscal stimulus. </span></p>
<p><span><strong>Australian central bank head Lowe’s scheduled testimony early on Friday may provide some updates on the RBA’s policy intentions.</strong> Recent comments from the RBA have sounded increasingly downbeat about the economic outlook presumably due at least in part to the rise in Covid-19 cases in Victoria, although today’s labour market report may have eased some concerns. The RBA’s last update talked about the need for monetary policy to remain supportive of growth but stopped short of promising further measures</span></p>
<h3><b>Today’s Options Expiries</b><span> for 10AM New York Cut (notable size in bold)</span></h3>
<ul>
<li><span>EURUSD: </span><b>1.1700 (1.6BLN),</b><span> 1.1725 (600M), 1.1750-60 (700M), 1.1775 (455M) 1.1785-90 (550M), 1.1825 (634M)</span></li>
<li><span>USDJPY: </span><b>106.00 (1.1BLN)</b><span>, 106.20 (300M), 106.70 (888M) </span><b>106.90-107.00 (1.2BLN),</b><span> 107.05-10 (380M), </span><b>107.15-20 (1BLN)</b><span>, 107.30 (380M)</span></li>
<li><span>GBPUSD: 1.3000 (750M)</span></li>
<li><span>AUDUSD: </span><b>0.7100 (1.2BLN)</b><span>, 0.7150 (286M), 0.7200 (285M), 0.7230-35 (385M)</span></li>
</ul>
<h3><b>Technical &amp; Trade Views</b></h3>
<p><b>EURUSD Bias: Bullish above 1.1820 Bearish Below</b></p>
<p><span>EURUSD From a technical and trading perspective, as 1.1810 acts as resistance anticipate another corrective leg lower to test bids back towards 1.16. A daily close back through 1.1820 would negate the corrective thesis, opening a retest of 1.19 UPDATE 1.19 retest played out now there is a potential for a double top to develop, will need to see a H4 close sub 1.1850 to open a retest of 1.17 support UPDATE momentum divergence addressed, as 1.18 acts as as resistance look for a test of 1.1650 UPDATE continuing battle around the 1.18 handle, through 1.1770 should encourage bearish bets looking for price to test the expiry today at 1.17</span></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-48605" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Screenshot-2020-08-13-at-08.27.47.png" alt="" width="2148" height="1205" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Screenshot-2020-08-13-at-08.27.47.png 2148w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Screenshot-2020-08-13-at-08.27.47-300×168.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Screenshot-2020-08-13-at-08.27.47-1024×574.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Screenshot-2020-08-13-at-08.27.47-768×431.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Screenshot-2020-08-13-at-08.27.47-1536×862.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Screenshot-2020-08-13-at-08.27.47-2048×1149.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2148px) 100vw, 2148px" /></p>
<p><b>GBPUSD Bias: Bullish above 1.30 targeting 1.3250</b></p>
<p><span>GBPUSD From a technical and trading perspective, price tested pivotal trendline resistance at 1.3166, anticipated profit taking pull back playing out. As 1.30 continues to attract buying interest look for a test of 1.3250. UPDATE as 1.13160 acts as resistance potential for 1.2860 before higher</span></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-48606" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Screenshot-2020-08-13-at-08.28.55.png" alt="" width="2152" height="1203" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Screenshot-2020-08-13-at-08.28.55.png 2152w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Screenshot-2020-08-13-at-08.28.55-300×168.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Screenshot-2020-08-13-at-08.28.55-1024×572.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Screenshot-2020-08-13-at-08.28.55-768×429.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Screenshot-2020-08-13-at-08.28.55-1536×859.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Screenshot-2020-08-13-at-08.28.55-2048×1145.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2152px) 100vw, 2152px" /></p>
<p><b>USDJPY Bias: Bullish above 105.50 targeting 107.50 </b></p>
<p><span>USDJPY From a technical and trading perspective, anticipated test of the equality objective at 104.50 attract big bids, printing a key reversal pattern on Friday, as discussed in today’s Chart Hit, as 105.50 acts as a support look for a test of the equality objective to 107.50.</span></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-48607" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Screenshot-2020-08-13-at-08.29.34.png" alt="" width="2151" height="1206" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Screenshot-2020-08-13-at-08.29.34.png 2151w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Screenshot-2020-08-13-at-08.29.34-300×168.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Screenshot-2020-08-13-at-08.29.34-1024×574.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Screenshot-2020-08-13-at-08.29.34-768×431.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Screenshot-2020-08-13-at-08.29.34-1536×861.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Screenshot-2020-08-13-at-08.29.34-2048×1148.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2151px) 100vw, 2151px" /></p>
<p><b>AUDUSD Bias: Bearish below .7170/90 targeting .6950</b></p>
<p><span>AUDUSD From a technical and trading perspective, test of stops and offers above .7220 has delivered the anticipated corrective phase, as .7170/90 now acts as resistance look for a test .6950 as ascending support. UPDATE potential double top in place to deliver the test of ascending trend channel support now at .7000 </span></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-48608" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Screenshot-2020-08-13-at-08.29.51.png" alt="" width="2147" height="1208" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Screenshot-2020-08-13-at-08.29.51.png 2147w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Screenshot-2020-08-13-at-08.29.51-300×169.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Screenshot-2020-08-13-at-08.29.51-1024×576.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Screenshot-2020-08-13-at-08.29.51-768×432.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Screenshot-2020-08-13-at-08.29.51-1536×864.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Screenshot-2020-08-13-at-08.29.51-2048×1152.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2147px) 100vw, 2147px" /></p>
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