Daily Commodity Outlook, July 14 2020
<p><span>Asian stocks slipped on Tuesday following their U.S. peers on concern over the rising Covid-19 cases. The Nasdaq hit another record before finishing in the red. Market sentiment took a hit as California is restricting reopening. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions rise again after Trump rejected China’s claims in the South China Sea. </span></p>
<p><span>USD soared back as the geopolitical tension escalated. The slip of the U.S. stock market also reminds investors of the divergence between a glooming economic outlook and recent rally of the stock market. Earnings season might have a reality check on the corporate earnings.</span></p>
<p><span>Copper prices pared recent losses after surpassing its 25-months high. Looking ahead, we maintain our bullish outlook on Copper, as supply disruption from one of the top producers, as workers at Antofagasta Minerals’s Zaldivar copper mine in Chile engaged in a strike, along with a solid demand from China could result in a shortage of the metal, thereby boosting prices.</span></p>
<p><span>Gold prices pared recent gains yesterday, as the receding number of Covid-19 cases from the US boosted the market risk appetite. However, the downside in prices remain limited as geopolitical tensions between China and US intensified, with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s comments defying China’s claim over the South China Sea. Apart from the US-Sino tensions, UK’s ban on Huawei from British networks until 2027 and confrontations with new aircraft carriers further dampened the market risk sentiment. Looking ahead, we maintain our bullish outlook on Gold, as the low interest rate environment and rising geopolitical tensions could provide a boost to the upward trajectory we have been witnessing. </span></p>
<p><span>Oil dropped for the 2nd day on expectations that OPEC+ will start winding down its production cuts this coming month. Further the escalating trade tensions between US and China added to the negative sentiments across financial markets. The raging of the coronavirus cases around the world also continues to overshadow and add to the gloom of the situation. In line with oil, CAD weakened considerably and underperformed against a weakened USD.</span></p>
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<p><b>Technical & Trade views</b></p>
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<p><b>USDCAD (</b><b>Intraday bias: bearish below 1.3626)</b></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-47013" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/usdcad-7-1024×534.png" alt="" width="1024" height="534" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/usdcad-7-1024×534.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/usdcad-7-300×156.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/usdcad-7-768×400.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/usdcad-7.png 1109w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></p>
<p><span>We turned bearish as price is approaching 1st resistance where the horizontal swing high is and is likely to reverse off the level towards 1st support where the pullback support is. Stochastics also indicates bearishness.</span></p>
<p><b>UKOIL (</b><b>Intraday bias: Neutral between 42.38 and 41.78)</b></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-47014" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/ukoil-7-1024×523.png" alt="" width="1024" height="523" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/ukoil-7-1024×523.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/ukoil-7-300×153.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/ukoil-7-768×392.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/ukoil-7.png 1110w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></p>
<p><span>Oil holding between resistance at 42.38 and support at 41.78. With technical indicators showing mixed signal and no good level for entry, we prefer to remain neutral for now. Surpassing 42.38 will see price pushing higher towards 43.30. Otherwise a break below 41.78 will see price drop towards 41.30.</span></p>
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<p><b>XAUUSD (</b><b>Intraday bias: Bullish above 1789.21) </b></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-47015" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/xauusd-7-1024×495.png" alt="" width="1024" height="495" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/xauusd-7-1024×495.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/xauusd-7-300×145.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/xauusd-7-768×372.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/xauusd-7.png 1110w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></p>
<p><span>Price is testing our first support level, in line with our ascending trend line and a break above our upside confirmation level at 1813.47 could provide the bullish acceleration to our first resistance level. Ichimoku cloud is showing signs of bullish pressure as well, in line with our bullish bias. </span></p>
<p><b>XCUUSD (</b><b>Intraday bias: Bullish above 2.85969)</b></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-47016" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/xcuusd-7-1024×527.png" alt="" width="1024" height="527" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/xcuusd-7-1024×527.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/xcuusd-7-300×154.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/xcuusd-7-768×395.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/xcuusd-7.png 1108w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></p>
<p><span>Price is facing bullish pressure from our first support level in line with our ascending trend line, 23.6% fibonacci retracement and 78.6% fibonacci extension where we could see a bounce above this level to our first resistance level. Stochastic is approaching our support at 15.05 as well, where we could see a bounce above this level.</span></p>
<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://blog.tickmill.com/tech-analysis/daily-commodity-outlook-july-14-2020/">Daily Commodity Outlook, July 14 2020</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://blog.tickmill.com">Tickmill</a>.</p>
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