Daily Market Outlook, June 19, 2020 

<h2><span>Daily Market Outlook, June 19, 2020 </span></h2>
<p><span><strong>Markets exhibited a cautious tone in Asia with the equity market mixed but broadly higher over the week.</strong> There were continuing concerns about rising coronavirus cases in Latin America as well as a potential second wave of infections in parts of the US and China. Investors also digested yesterday’s US weekly initial jobless claims figures, which were higher than expected, and comments from the Fed’s Mester who warned that it would take a ‘long time’ for the economy to return to pre-Covid levels.</span></p>
<p><span><strong>UK retail sales figures for May were released earlier this morning</strong>. They showed a strong rebound in the volume of sales of 12.0% (including fuel), as lockdown measures began to be lifted. The outturn was  was well above the market consensus prediction of 6.3%. It followed an 18.0% drop in April. Non-food sales rebounded strongly, but remained well below pre-pandemic levels. Separately, GfK reported a 6-point rise in consumer confidence to  30. Also released were UK public finances data which showed a larger-than-expected increase in borrowing in May and government debt rising above 100% of GDP for the first time since 1963.</span></p>
<p><span><strong>The EU leaders’ summit will take place at 10am (local time) via video conference focusing on the proposed €750bn Recovery Plan in response to Covid-19 and a broader discussion around the EU long-term budget (2021-27)</strong>. A press conference is expected to take place after the video conference. The Recovery Plan, which includes €500bn of grants, particularly to countries most affected by the pandemic, remains contentious among the so-called ‘frugal four’ (Netherlands, Austria, Denmark and Sweden). EU leaders will also assess the state of play in negotiations on a future relationship with the UK, especially after high-level talks between PM Johnson and Commission President von der Leyen earlier this week.</span></p>
<p><span><strong>There are no first-tier economic data releases in the rest of the day.</strong> Eurozone April and US Q1 current account figures will attract limited attention, while Canada will release April retail sales which are forecast to have fallen sharply by about 15% on top of the 10% drop in March. US Fed Chair Powell will take part in an event with Cleveland Fed President Mester this evening. The Fed’s Rosengren and Quarles will also participate in separate events.</span></p>
<h3><b>Today’s Options Expiries</b><span> for 10AM New York Cut (notable size in bold)</span></h3>
<ul>
<li><span>EURUSD: </span><b>1.1195-00 (1.2BLN)</b><span>, 1.1215 (321M), 1.1235-40 (875M) </span><b>1.1250-60 (1.4BLN)</b><span>, 1.1275-80 (650M)</span></li>
<li><span>GBPUSD: 1.2400 (308M), 1.2415 (320M), 1.2500 (300M), 1.2750 (300M)</span></li>
<li><span>USDJPY:</span> <span>106.45-50 (855M), 107.30-40 (600M), 107.50 (435M), 107.70 (450M), 108.00 (270M)</span></li>
</ul>
<h3><span>Technical &amp; Trade Views</span></h3>
<p><b>EURUSD Bias: Bullish above 1.1170 Bearish below</b></p>
<p><span>From a technical and trading perspective, as symmetry swing support at 1.1170 supports there is a window for fresh demand to take prices higher again to retest cycle highs above 1.14 enroute to an ultimate retest of year to date highs at 1.15. However, it is noteworthy that the daily volume weighted average price has flipped bearish as such a failure to hold support at 1.1170/50 would open a deeper corrective phase to rest bids back to 1.10 UPDATE yesterday’s close flipped the daily chart bullish supporting the upside bias UPDATE price continues to consolidate above pivotal support as 1.1170 holds look for a move through 1.13 to initiate a squeeze on newly minted short positions</span></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-45592" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-19-08.22.26.png" alt="" width="2148" height="1234" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-19-08.22.26.png 2148w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-19-08.22.26-300×172.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-19-08.22.26-1024×588.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-19-08.22.26-768×441.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-19-08.22.26-1536×882.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-19-08.22.26-2048×1177.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2148px) 100vw, 2148px" /></p>
<p><b>GBPUSD Bias: Bullish above 1.24 Bearish below</b></p>
<p><span>GBPUSD From a technical and trading perspective, reversal from the 1.28 test last week has gathered steam and now looks poised to test the major ascending trendline support sighted at 1.24, if renewed bids develop here look for a retest of 1.26 from below. A failure to defend the trendline support would be a bearish development opening a move to 1.2324 as the equality downside objective.</span></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-45593" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-19-08.23.30.png" alt="" width="2146" height="1236" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-19-08.23.30.png 2146w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-19-08.23.30-300×173.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-19-08.23.30-1024×590.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-19-08.23.30-768×442.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-19-08.23.30-1536×885.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-19-08.23.30-2048×1180.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2146px) 100vw, 2146px" /></p>
<p><b>USDJPY Bias: Bearish below 1.08 targeting 1.06</b></p>
<p><span>USDJPY From a technical and trading perspective, sharp rejection above 109.50 suggests a return to range trade and a retest of support back to 107 UPDATE target achieved as 108 caps upside attempts bears will play for a test of year to date lows to 106 </span></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-45595" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-19-08.25.44.png" alt="" width="2150" height="1239" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-19-08.25.44.png 2150w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-19-08.25.44-300×173.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-19-08.25.44-1024×590.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-19-08.25.44-768×443.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-19-08.25.44-1536×885.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-19-08.25.44-2048×1180.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2150px) 100vw, 2150px" /></p>
<p><b>AUDUSD Bias: Bearish below .6900 Bullish above)</b></p>
<p><span>AUDUSD From a technical and trading perspective, after the rejection from above the .7050 level and the subsequent failure to hold .6900 as support, anticipate a test of the corrective equality objective back to .6650. Only a close back through .6910 would reignite bullish spirits suggesting the current correction is complete opening another run to test offers and stops above .7050</span></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-45596" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-19-08.26.43.png" alt="" width="2154" height="1237" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-19-08.26.43.png 2154w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-19-08.26.43-300×172.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-19-08.26.43-1024×588.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-19-08.26.43-768×441.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-19-08.26.43-1536×882.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-19-08.26.43-2048×1176.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2154px) 100vw, 2154px" /></p>
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