COT Bonds Charts: Speculator bets led by 5-Year Bonds
<p><strong>By <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/"><u>InvestMacro</u></a></strong></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison.png"><img data-dominant-color="272b23" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #272b23;" loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-218026" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison.png" alt="" width="609" height="371" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison.png 609w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison-160×97.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison-150×91.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 609px) 100vw, 609px" /></a></p>
<p>Here are the latest charts and statistics for the <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/cot-reports/">Commitment of Traders (COT) reports</a> data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (<a href="https://www.cftc.gov/">CFTC</a>).</p>
<p>The latest COT data is updated through <b>Tuesday January 30th</b> and shows a quick view of how large traders (<a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-reports/#Trader_Groups">for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers</a>) were positioned in the futures markets.</p>
<h2>Weekly Speculator Changes led by 5-Year Bonds & Ultra Treasury Bonds</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes.png"><img data-dominant-color="080a0e" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #080a0e;" loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-218027" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes.png" alt="" width="605" height="371" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes.png 605w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-160×98.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-150×92.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 605px) 100vw, 605px" /></a></p>
<p>The COT <a href="https://investmacro.com/bonds-treasuries-corporate-sovereign/">bond market</a> speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.</p>
<p>Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 5-Year Bonds (38,211 contracts) with the Ultra Treasury Bonds (641 contracts) also having a small positive week.</p>
<p>The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Fed Funds (-80,701 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-74,337 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (-64,042 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-40,595 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-38,116 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (-8,491 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.</p>
<hr />
<h3>Speculators Leaderboard</h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/bonds_leaders.png"><img data-dominant-color="0e0e0e" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #0e0e0e;" loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-218015" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/bonds_leaders.png" alt="" width="627" height="260" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/bonds_leaders.png 627w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/bonds_leaders-160×66.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/bonds_leaders-150×62.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 627px) 100vw, 627px" /></a><br />
<strong>Legend:</strong> Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)</p>
<hr />
<h2>Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Ultra Treasury Bonds</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100.png"><img data-dominant-color="151f31" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #151f31;" loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-218028" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100.png" alt="" width="571" height="371" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100.png 571w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-160×104.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-150×97.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 571px) 100vw, 571px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-leaders/#specs">COT Strength Scores</a> (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (97 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (52 percent) led the bond markets this week.</p>
<p>On the downside, the 10-Year Bonds (3 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (11 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (18 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).</p>
<p align="center"><strong>Strength Statistics:</strong><br />
Fed Funds (35.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (52.5 percent)<br />
2-Year Bond (10.8 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (13.2 percent)<br />
5-Year Bond (17.6 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (15.2 percent)<br />
10-Year Bond (2.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (9.8 percent)<br />
Ultra 10-Year Bond (17.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (25.3 percent)<br />
US Treasury Bond (35.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (38.5 percent)<br />
Ultra US Treasury Bond (52.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (51.9 percent)<br />
SOFR 3-Months (96.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (100.0 percent)</p>
<p> </p>
<h2>Ultra 10-Year Bonds & 5-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks.png"><img data-dominant-color="160e0f" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #160e0f;" loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-218029" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks.png" alt="" width="571" height="371" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks.png 571w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-160×104.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-150×97.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 571px) 100vw, 571px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-leaders/#specs">COT Strength Score Trends</a> (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (16 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (12 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The SOFR 3-Months (7 percent) and the are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.</p>
<p>The Fed Funds (-24 percent), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-16 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (-16 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.</p>
<p align="center"><strong>Strength Trend Statistics:</strong><br />
Fed Funds (-24.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (17.9 percent)<br />
2-Year Bond (-1.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (5.8 percent)<br />
5-Year Bond (12.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (7.0 percent)<br />
10-Year Bond (-16.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-21.3 percent)<br />
Ultra 10-Year Bond (15.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (25.0 percent)<br />
US Treasury Bond (0.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (2.5 percent)<br />
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-15.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-15.8 percent)<br />
SOFR 3-Months (6.6 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (2.6 percent)</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/SR3-02-02-2024.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/SR3-02-02-2024.png" alt="SOFR 3-Months Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 705,145 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -64,042 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 769,187 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Weak Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>SOFR 3-Months Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">19.3</td>
<td width="189">50.7</td>
<td width="187">0.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">12.6</td>
<td width="189">57.5</td>
<td width="187">0.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">705,145</td>
<td width="189">-701,186</td>
<td width="187">-3,959</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">2,012,056</td>
<td width="189">5,282,698</td>
<td width="187">28,810</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">1,306,911</td>
<td width="189">5,983,884</td>
<td width="187">32,769</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">1.5 to 1</td>
<td width="189">0.9 to 1</td>
<td width="187">0.9 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">96.7</td>
<td width="189">3.3</td>
<td width="187">85.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">6.6</td>
<td width="189">-6.7</td>
<td width="187">1.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>30-Day Federal Funds Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/FF-02-02-2024.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/FF-02-02-2024.png" alt="Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -156,080 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -80,701 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,379 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>30-Day Federal Funds Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">10.5</td>
<td width="189">70.1</td>
<td width="187">1.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">18.2</td>
<td width="189">61.7</td>
<td width="187">2.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-156,080</td>
<td width="189">169,562</td>
<td width="187">-13,482</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">213,115</td>
<td width="189">1,419,260</td>
<td width="187">27,738</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">369,195</td>
<td width="189">1,249,698</td>
<td width="187">41,220</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.6 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.1 to 1</td>
<td width="187">0.7 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">35.2</td>
<td width="189">65.8</td>
<td width="187">64.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-24.0</td>
<td width="189">23.9</td>
<td width="187">0.4</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>2-Year Treasury Note Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/TU-02-02-2024.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/TU-02-02-2024.png" alt="2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,307,001 contracts in the <a href="https://investmacro.com/all-markets-cot-futures-data/">data</a> reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -38,116 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,268,885 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>2-Year Treasury Note Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">9.2</td>
<td width="189">83.1</td>
<td width="187">6.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">42.5</td>
<td width="189">53.4</td>
<td width="187">3.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-1,307,001</td>
<td width="189">1,167,338</td>
<td width="187">139,663</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">361,700</td>
<td width="189">3,262,504</td>
<td width="187">260,468</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">1,668,701</td>
<td width="189">2,095,166</td>
<td width="187">120,805</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.2 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.6 to 1</td>
<td width="187">2.2 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">10.8</td>
<td width="189">87.9</td>
<td width="187">97.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-1.0</td>
<td width="189">0.7</td>
<td width="187">2.7</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>5-Year Treasury Note Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/FV-02-02-2024.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/FV-02-02-2024.png" alt="5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,192,978 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 38,211 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,231,189 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>5-Year Treasury Note Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">8.0</td>
<td width="189">83.5</td>
<td width="187">7.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">28.1</td>
<td width="189">66.0</td>
<td width="187">4.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-1,192,978</td>
<td width="189">1,042,055</td>
<td width="187">150,923</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">474,604</td>
<td width="189">4,958,885</td>
<td width="187">426,265</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">1,667,582</td>
<td width="189">3,916,830</td>
<td width="187">275,342</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.3 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.3 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.5 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">17.6</td>
<td width="189">78.6</td>
<td width="187">94.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">12.5</td>
<td width="189">-14.6</td>
<td width="187">0.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>10-Year Treasury Note Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/TY-02-02-2024.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/TY-02-02-2024.png" alt="10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -859,015 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -74,337 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -784,678 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.0 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>10-Year Treasury Note Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">10.1</td>
<td width="189">79.6</td>
<td width="187">8.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">28.2</td>
<td width="189">62.4</td>
<td width="187">7.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-859,015</td>
<td width="189">810,792</td>
<td width="187">48,223</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">476,861</td>
<td width="189">3,765,976</td>
<td width="187">411,708</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">1,335,876</td>
<td width="189">2,955,184</td>
<td width="187">363,485</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.4 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.3 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.1 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">2.8</td>
<td width="189">98.5</td>
<td width="187">84.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-16.0</td>
<td width="189">21.9</td>
<td width="187">-0.1</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/TN-02-02-2024.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/TN-02-02-2024.png" alt="Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -179,110 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -40,595 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -138,515 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Weak Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">14.2</td>
<td width="189">75.6</td>
<td width="187">8.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">22.7</td>
<td width="189">62.3</td>
<td width="187">13.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-179,110</td>
<td width="189">280,254</td>
<td width="187">-101,144</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">298,951</td>
<td width="189">1,591,383</td>
<td width="187">186,641</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">478,061</td>
<td width="189">1,311,129</td>
<td width="187">287,785</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.6 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.2 to 1</td>
<td width="187">0.6 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">17.9</td>
<td width="189">87.3</td>
<td width="187">53.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">15.6</td>
<td width="189">-12.1</td>
<td width="187">-15.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>US Treasury Bonds Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/US-02-02-2024.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/US-02-02-2024.png" alt="US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -137,502 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,491 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -129,011 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.8 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>US Treasury Bonds Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">12.2</td>
<td width="189">72.3</td>
<td width="187">14.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">21.9</td>
<td width="189">66.9</td>
<td width="187">10.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-137,502</td>
<td width="189">76,626</td>
<td width="187">60,876</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">174,607</td>
<td width="189">1,031,332</td>
<td width="187">206,676</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">312,109</td>
<td width="189">954,706</td>
<td width="187">145,800</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.6 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.1 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.4 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">35.6</td>
<td width="189">40.6</td>
<td width="187">92.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">0.2</td>
<td width="189">-8.6</td>
<td width="187">16.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/UB-02-02-2024.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/UB-02-02-2024.png" alt="Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -330,468 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 641 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -331,109 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">9.7</td>
<td width="189">80.0</td>
<td width="187">10.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">29.8</td>
<td width="189">60.8</td>
<td width="187">9.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-330,468</td>
<td width="189">317,381</td>
<td width="187">13,087</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">159,581</td>
<td width="189">1,318,459</td>
<td width="187">165,201</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">490,049</td>
<td width="189">1,001,078</td>
<td width="187">152,114</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.3 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.3 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.1 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">52.2</td>
<td width="189">52.0</td>
<td width="187">49.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-15.9</td>
<td width="189">23.5</td>
<td width="187">-7.7</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<p>Article <strong>By InvestMacro</strong> – <b>Receive our weekly <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-newsletter/">COT Newsletter</a></b></p>
<p><strong>*</strong><a href="https://www.investmacro.com/cot-reports/">COT Report</a>: The <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-data/">COT data</a>, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.</p>
<p>The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-reports/">commercial hedgers</a> (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their <a href="https://investmacro.com/open-interest-analysis/">open interest</a> (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria <a href="https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm">here</a>.</p>
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