GBPUSD Technical Analysis – Key trendline in sight

<p>USD</p><ul><li>The Fed <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/fomc-decision-no-change-to-rates-2024-median-dot-46-vs-49-expected-20231213/">left interest rates unchanged</a> as expected at the last meeting with a shift in
the statement that indicated the end of the tightening cycle. </li><li>The latest <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-december-core-cpi-39-yy-versus-38-yy-expected-20240111/">US CPI</a> slightly beat expectations but analysts
expect the Core PCE to print at 0.2% M/M again following the CPI data. </li><li>The labour market continues to soften but remains
resilient with <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-initial-jobless-claims-187k-vs-207k-estimate-20240118/">US Jobless Claims</a> beating expectations week after week.</li><li>The latest <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-december-ism-manufacturing-pmi-474-vs-471-expected-20240103/">ISM Manufacturing PMI</a> beat expectations, while the <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-december-ism-services-506-vs-526-expected-20240105/">ISM Services PMI</a> missed by a big margin. </li><li>The <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-december-retail-sales-06-vs-04-expected-20240117/">US Retail Sales</a> beat expectations across the board.</li><li>The <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-january-umich-prelim-consumer-sentiment-788-vs-700-expected-20240119/">University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment</a> report jumped to the highest levels since
2021. </li><li>The Fed members recently have been pushing
back on the aggressive rate cuts expectations.</li><li>The market’s expectations for the first rate cut
were pushed back to May following strong economic data.</li></ul><p>GBP</p><ul><li>The BoE <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boe-leaves-bank-rate-unchanged-at-525-as-expected-20231214/">left interest rates unchanged</a> as expected at the last meeting
with no dovish language as they reaffirmed that they will keep rates high for
sufficiently long to return to the 2% target.
</li><li>The latest <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-november-ilo-unemployment-rate-42-vs-42-expected-20240116/">employment report</a> showed job losses in December and
lower than expected wage growth.</li><li>The <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-december-cpi-40-vs-38-yy-expected-20240117/">UK CPI</a> beat expectations across the board, which is
going to reinforce the BoE’s neutral stance.</li><li>The last <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-december-flash-services-pmi-527-vs-510-expected-20231215/">UK PMIs</a> showed the Manufacturing sector falling
further into contraction while the Services sector continues to expand. </li><li>The latest <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-december-retail-sales-32-vs-05-mm-expected-20240119/">UK Retail Sales</a> missed expectations across the
board by a big margin as consumer spending remains weak.</li><li>The market expects the BoE to start
cutting rates in Q2.</li></ul><p>GBPUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe</p><p>On the daily chart, we can see that GBPUSD bounced
on the key <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/">support</a> around
the 1.2610 level and rallied into the 1.2750 level as the buyers piled in to
target the 1.28 handle. There’s not much to glean from this timeframe as the
price trades right in the middle of the range, so we need to zoom in to see
some more details. </p><p>GBPUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe</p><p>On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the pair has
been rising tentatively as both the currencies remain relatively strong. We can
see that we have a <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/">trendline</a> where
there’s also the red 21 <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/">moving average</a> for <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/">confluence</a>. This is
where the buyers should lean onto to position for a continuation of the rally
with a better risk to reward setup. The sellers, on the other hand, will want
to see the price breaking lower to invalidate the bullish setup and position
for a drop back into the 1.26 handle. </p><p>GBPUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe</p><p>On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
price has been <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-divergence-20220429/">diverging</a> with
the <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-macd-20220427/">MACD</a> for
quite some time. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed
by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, it should point to a pullback into the
trendline where the buyers will have the opportunity to increase their bullish
bets with a better risk to reward setup. Conversely, if the price were to break
below the trendline a reversal would be confirmed, and the sellers will pile in
to target a drop back into the 1.26 support. </p><p>Upcoming Events</p><p><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar">This week</a> is a bit more tranquil on the data front with
the major releases scheduled for the final part of the week. We begin tomorrow
with the UK and the US PMIs. On Thursday, we have the Advance US Q4 GDP and the
latest US Jobless Claims figures. Finally, on Friday we conclude the week with
the US PCE report.</p>

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.