China's falling population and its economic consequences: a growing concern

<p>Even though the data found in these posts is of importance for China's economic and policy outlook: </p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/china-q4-2023-gdp-52-yy-20240117/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">China Q4 2023 GDP 5.2% y/y</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/china-december-industrial-output-68-yy-exp-66-retail-sales-74-exp-80-20240117/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">China December industrial output +6.8% y/y (exp +6.6%) Retail Sales +7.4% (exp +8.0%)</a></li></ul><p>the most important data point is probably not found in these posts.</p><p>China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) published population numbers showing China's population fell for a second consecutive year in 2023, due to</p><ul><li>a record low birth rate</li><li>a wave of COVID-19 deaths when strict lockdowns ended</li><li>youth unemployment hit record highs</li><li>wages for many white-collar workers declined</li><li>the property sector, where more than two-thirds of household wealth is stored, slump intensified</li></ul><p>A declining population, if its not reversed will have significant long-term effects on the economy's growth potential. Japan springs to mind.</p><p>NBS numbers showed the total number of people in China dropped by 2.75 million, or 0.2%, to 1.409 billion in 2023. While that's no reason to hit the panic button, if it continues it'll have negative economic consequences. A key challenge China faces is that because of the earlier one-child policy, there are millions fewer women of childbearing age every year.</p>

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.