Weekly Market Outlook (08-12 January)

<p>UPCOMING EVENTS:</p><ul><li>Monday:
Switzerland CPI and Retail Sales, Eurozone Retail Sales.</li><li>Tuesday: Tokyo
CPI, Australia Retail Sales, Switzerland Unemployment Rate, Eurozone
Unemployment Rate, US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index.</li><li>Wednesday: Japan
Wages data, Australia Monthly CPI.</li><li>Thursday: US
CPI, US Jobless Claims.</li><li>Friday: China
CPI, UK GDP, US PPI.</li></ul><p>Monday</p><p>The Switzerland CPI Y/Y is expected at
1.5% vs. 1.4% <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/switzerland-november-cpi-14-vs-17-yy-expected-20231204/">prior</a>,
while the M/M reading is seen at -0.2% vs. -0.2% prior. Inflation has been
within SNB’s 0-2% target range since last summer and even if we get a beat,
it’s very unlikely to trigger a response from the central bank. The market is
now looking forward to rate cuts with the first one expected in June. </p><p>Tuesday</p><p>The Tokyo CPI is seen as a leading
indicator of National CPI. The Tokyo Core CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.1% vs. 2.3% <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/tokyo-area-cpi-data-for-november-2023-comes-in-way-above-the-2-boj-target-rate-again-20231204/">prior</a>.
The headline inflation rate has been falling steadily thanks to energy
deflation but the Core-Core measure, which excludes food and energy prices, has
been doing the opposite with the rate standing at 2.7%, well above the BoJ’s 2%
target. </p><p>There’s no consensus for the US NFIB Small
Business Optimism Index which came in at 90.6 the <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-november-nfib-small-business-optimism-index-906-vs-907-prior-20231212/">prior
month</a>. Given the ISM Services PMI report on Friday, I feel like the market
this time might react to this release, especially if we get a notable dip.
Overall, the index has been in recessionary territory for quite some time, so
it’s worth to keep an eye on it. </p><p>Wednesday</p><p>Wage growth is of the utmost importance
for the BoJ right now, so the Average Cash Earnings is something to watch out
for. There’s no consensus for the data but the <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/japan-data-oct-wages-15-yy-prior-12-household-spending-25-yy-expected-3-20231207/">prior
report</a> saw a rise of 1.5% Y/Y in October with a positive revision to the
September figure. </p><p>The Australian Monthly CPI Y/Y is expected
at 4.4% vs. 4.9% <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/australian-monthly-cpi-for-october-2023-49-yy-vs-expected-52-20231129/">prior</a>.
The RBA will meet in February, so they will also get to see another labour
market and quarterly inflation report before deciding on the policy response.
The market is expecting the central bank to cut rates in June. </p><p>Thursday</p><p>The US CPI Y/Y is expected at 3.2% vs.
3.1% <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-november-core-cpi-40-yy-versus-40-yy-expected-20231212/">prior</a>,
while the M/M reading is seen at 0.2% vs. 0.1% prior. The Core CPI Y/Y is
expected at 3.8% vs. 4.0% prior, while the M/M figure is seen at 0.2% vs. 0.3%
prior. The market is expecting six rate cuts in 2024 with the first one coming
in March. A hot report might trim the expectations for a March cut to basically
a 50/50 chance, but given last Friday’s data, we might see the market looking
past the CPI report and focusing more on other data. </p><p>The US Jobless Claims continue to be one
of the most important releases every week as it’s a timelier indicator on the
state of the labour market. Initial Claims keep on hovering around cycle lows,
which shows us that layoffs have not yet picked up notably, but Continuing
Claims have risen to a new cycle high in the past few months and that’s
indicative of people finding it harder to get another job after being laid off.
This week the consensus sees Initial Claims at 210K vs. 202K <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-weekly-initial-jobless-claims-208k-vs-216k-expected-20240104/">prior</a>,
while there’s no estimate at the time of writing for Continuing Claims,
although the last week’s number was 1855K vs. 1886K prior.</p>

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.