COT Bonds Charts: Speculators bets led Fed Funds & 10-Year Bonds

<p><strong>By <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/"><u>InvestMacro</u></a></strong></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison-1.png"><img data-dominant-color="262b23" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #262b23;" loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-217016" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison-1.png" alt="" width="609" height="371" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison-1.png 609w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison-1-160×97.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison-1-150×91.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 609px) 100vw, 609px" /></a></p>
<p>Here are the latest charts and statistics for the <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/cot-reports/">Commitment of Traders (COT) reports</a> data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (<a href="https://www.cftc.gov/">CFTC</a>).</p>
<p>The latest COT data is updated through <b>Tuesday December 5th</b> and shows a quick view of how large traders (<a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-reports/#Trader_Groups">for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers</a>) were positioned in the futures markets.</p>
<h2>Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds &amp; 10-Year Bonds</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-1.png"><img data-dominant-color="090b0f" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #090b0f;" loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-217019" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-1.png" alt="" width="605" height="371" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-1.png 605w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-1-160×98.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-1-150×92.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 605px) 100vw, 605px" /></a></p>
<p>The COT <a href="https://investmacro.com/bonds-treasuries-corporate-sovereign/">bond market</a> speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.</p>
<p>Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds (50,336 contracts) with the 10-Year Bonds (48,898 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (12,603 contracts) also showing positive weeks.</p>
<p>The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 5-Year Bonds (-30,927 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-187,185 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-27,903 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (-15,457 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-9,960 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.</p>
<hr />
<div>Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Data_Tables_Labels-2.png"><u>Columns Legend</u></a></div>
<div>
<table border="1">
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Dec-05-2023</th>
<th>OI</th>
<th>OI-Index</th>
<th>Spec-Net</th>
<th>Spec-Index</th>
<th>Com-Net</th>
<th>COM-Index</th>
<th>Smalls-Net</th>
<th>Smalls-Index</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>SOFR-3-Months</td>
<td>10,972,383</td>
<td>100</td>
<td>511,780</td>
<td>99</td>
<td>-508,691</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>-3,089</td>
<td>86</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>FedFunds</td>
<td>1,482,072</td>
<td>44</td>
<td>-153,154</td>
<td>36</td>
<td>165,097</td>
<td>65</td>
<td>-11,943</td>
<td>68</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2-Year</td>
<td>4,111,534</td>
<td>96</td>
<td>-1,476,016</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>1,334,625</td>
<td>100</td>
<td>141,391</td>
<td>98</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Long T-Bond</td>
<td>1,299,431</td>
<td>59</td>
<td>-130,079</td>
<td>38</td>
<td>82,852</td>
<td>42</td>
<td>47,227</td>
<td>83</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>10-Year</td>
<td>4,536,418</td>
<td>77</td>
<td>-636,456</td>
<td>21</td>
<td>584,114</td>
<td>76</td>
<td>52,342</td>
<td>85</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>5-Year</td>
<td>5,775,249</td>
<td>87</td>
<td>-1,429,427</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>1,292,579</td>
<td>97</td>
<td>136,848</td>
<td>97</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h2>Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months &amp; Ultra Treasury Bonds</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-1.png"><img data-dominant-color="151f30" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #151f30;" loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-217018" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-1.png" alt="" width="571" height="371" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-1.png 571w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-1-160×104.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-1-150×97.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 571px) 100vw, 571px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-leaders/#specs">COT Strength Scores</a> (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (99 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (56 percent) were leading the bond markets this week.</p>
<p>On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (0 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (3 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).</p>
<p align="center"><strong>Strength Statistics:</strong><br />
Fed Funds (35.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (25.1 percent)<br />
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (12.0 percent)<br />
5-Year Bond (2.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (4.5 percent)<br />
10-Year Bond (20.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (16.0 percent)<br />
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (1.8 percent)<br />
US Treasury Bond (38.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (47.9 percent)<br />
Ultra US Treasury Bond (56.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (51.4 percent)<br />
SOFR 3-Months (99.1 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (100.0 percent)</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>Ultra Treasury Bonds &amp; SOFR 3-Months top the 6-Week Strength Trends</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-1.png"><img data-dominant-color="1a0e0f" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #1a0e0f;" loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-217017" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-1.png" alt="" width="571" height="371" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-1.png 571w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-1-160×104.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-1-150×97.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 571px) 100vw, 571px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-leaders/#specs">COT Strength Score Trends</a> (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (19 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (13 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.</p>
<p>The 5-Year Bonds (-27 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (-7 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-3 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (-3 percent) following next with lower trend scores.</p>
<p align="center"><strong>Strength Trend Statistics:</strong><br />
Fed Funds (11.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (19.7 percent)<br />
2-Year Bond (-3.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (4.2 percent)<br />
5-Year Bond (-26.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-17.1 percent)<br />
10-Year Bond (-7.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (2.5 percent)<br />
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-3.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-3.1 percent)<br />
US Treasury Bond (2.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (28.0 percent)<br />
Ultra US Treasury Bond (18.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (13.0 percent)<br />
SOFR 3-Months (13.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (18.1 percent)</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/SR3-12-08-2023.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/SR3-12-08-2023.png" alt="SOFR 3-Months Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 511,780 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -15,457 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 527,237 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend (Possible Trend Change)</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Weak Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>SOFR 3-Months Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">20.2</td>
<td width="189">53.7</td>
<td width="187">0.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">15.5</td>
<td width="189">58.3</td>
<td width="187">0.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">511,780</td>
<td width="189">-508,691</td>
<td width="187">-3,089</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">2,213,085</td>
<td width="189">5,890,360</td>
<td width="187">79,464</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">1,701,305</td>
<td width="189">6,399,051</td>
<td width="187">82,553</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">1.3 to 1</td>
<td width="189">0.9 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.0 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">99.1</td>
<td width="189">1.0</td>
<td width="187">86.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">13.5</td>
<td width="189">-13.3</td>
<td width="187">-1.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>30-Day Federal Funds Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/FF-12-08-2023.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/FF-12-08-2023.png" alt="Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -153,154 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 50,336 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -203,490 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>30-Day Federal Funds Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">9.4</td>
<td width="189">74.5</td>
<td width="187">2.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">19.7</td>
<td width="189">63.4</td>
<td width="187">2.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-153,154</td>
<td width="189">165,097</td>
<td width="187">-11,943</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">138,769</td>
<td width="189">1,104,260</td>
<td width="187">30,097</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">291,923</td>
<td width="189">939,163</td>
<td width="187">42,040</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.5 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.2 to 1</td>
<td width="187">0.7 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">35.8</td>
<td width="189">64.8</td>
<td width="187">67.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">11.3</td>
<td width="189">-13.2</td>
<td width="187">18.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>2-Year Treasury Note Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/TU-12-08-2023.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/TU-12-08-2023.png" alt="2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,476,016 contracts in the <a href="https://investmacro.com/all-markets-cot-futures-data/">data</a> reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -187,185 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,288,831 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.7 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>2-Year Treasury Note Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">9.6</td>
<td width="189">82.4</td>
<td width="187">6.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">45.5</td>
<td width="189">49.9</td>
<td width="187">3.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-1,476,016</td>
<td width="189">1,334,625</td>
<td width="187">141,391</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">392,729</td>
<td width="189">3,387,065</td>
<td width="187">269,898</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">1,868,745</td>
<td width="189">2,052,440</td>
<td width="187">128,507</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.2 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.7 to 1</td>
<td width="187">2.1 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">0.0</td>
<td width="189">100.0</td>
<td width="187">97.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-3.3</td>
<td width="189">2.7</td>
<td width="187">5.7</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>5-Year Treasury Note Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/FV-12-08-2023.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/FV-12-08-2023.png" alt="5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,429,427 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -30,927 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,398,500 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Weak Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>5-Year Treasury Note Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">7.2</td>
<td width="189">84.2</td>
<td width="187">7.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">31.9</td>
<td width="189">61.8</td>
<td width="187">5.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-1,429,427</td>
<td width="189">1,292,579</td>
<td width="187">136,848</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">413,024</td>
<td width="189">4,864,463</td>
<td width="187">438,764</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">1,842,451</td>
<td width="189">3,571,884</td>
<td width="187">301,916</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.2 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.4 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.5 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">2.5</td>
<td width="189">96.9</td>
<td width="187">96.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-26.9</td>
<td width="189">25.4</td>
<td width="187">16.7</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>10-Year Treasury Note Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/TY-12-08-2023.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/TY-12-08-2023.png" alt="10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -636,456 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 48,898 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -685,354 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Weak Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>10-Year Treasury Note Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">10.6</td>
<td width="189">78.3</td>
<td width="187">9.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">24.7</td>
<td width="189">65.4</td>
<td width="187">8.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-636,456</td>
<td width="189">584,114</td>
<td width="187">52,342</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">482,555</td>
<td width="189">3,552,088</td>
<td width="187">415,343</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">1,119,011</td>
<td width="189">2,967,974</td>
<td width="187">363,001</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.4 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.2 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.1 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">20.7</td>
<td width="189">76.2</td>
<td width="187">84.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-7.1</td>
<td width="189">15.0</td>
<td width="187">-9.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/TN-12-08-2023.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/TN-12-08-2023.png" alt="Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -267,855 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,960 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -257,895 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend (Possible Trend Change)</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Weak Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">10.5</td>
<td width="189">78.8</td>
<td width="187">9.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">24.0</td>
<td width="189">61.8</td>
<td width="187">13.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-267,855</td>
<td width="189">338,116</td>
<td width="187">-70,261</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">209,338</td>
<td width="189">1,569,511</td>
<td width="187">196,892</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">477,193</td>
<td width="189">1,231,395</td>
<td width="187">267,153</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.4 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.3 to 1</td>
<td width="187">0.7 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">0.0</td>
<td width="189">100.0</td>
<td width="187">72.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-3.3</td>
<td width="189">6.9</td>
<td width="187">-9.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>US Treasury Bonds Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/US-12-08-2023.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/US-12-08-2023.png" alt="US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -130,079 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -27,903 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -102,176 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.8 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Weak Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>US Treasury Bonds Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">8.6</td>
<td width="189">76.1</td>
<td width="187">14.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">18.6</td>
<td width="189">69.7</td>
<td width="187">11.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-130,079</td>
<td width="189">82,852</td>
<td width="187">47,227</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">111,684</td>
<td width="189">989,196</td>
<td width="187">192,050</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">241,763</td>
<td width="189">906,344</td>
<td width="187">144,823</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.5 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.1 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.3 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">38.2</td>
<td width="189">41.9</td>
<td width="187">82.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">2.1</td>
<td width="189">-3.5</td>
<td width="187">2.3</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/UB-12-08-2023.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/UB-12-08-2023.png" alt="Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -316,662 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,603 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -329,265 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Weak Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">6.3</td>
<td width="189">82.3</td>
<td width="187">11.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">26.3</td>
<td width="189">63.8</td>
<td width="187">9.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-316,662</td>
<td width="189">293,770</td>
<td width="187">22,892</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">99,089</td>
<td width="189">1,304,089</td>
<td width="187">174,300</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">415,751</td>
<td width="189">1,010,319</td>
<td width="187">151,408</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.2 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.3 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.2 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">56.5</td>
<td width="189">40.1</td>
<td width="187">58.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">18.9</td>
<td width="189">-22.7</td>
<td width="187">-1.7</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<p>Article <strong>By InvestMacro</strong> – <b>Receive our weekly <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-newsletter/">COT Newsletter</a></b></p>
<p><strong>*</strong><a href="https://www.investmacro.com/cot-reports/">COT Report</a>: The <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-data/">COT data</a>, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.</p>
<p>The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-reports/">commercial hedgers</a> (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their <a href="https://investmacro.com/open-interest-analysis/">open interest</a> (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria <a href="https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm">here</a>.</p>