JASPER’S MARKET SQUAWK 30-11-2023

<h2>Market Rally Winds Up</h2>
<p>Investors remained optimistic on the back of positive GDP data coming out from the US but approached markets cautiously as the Fed’s Beige Book signalled slowing economic activity. The dollar edged up as a result, hitting the breaks on gold’s rally towards record highs.</p>
<p><img decoding="async" fetchpriority="high" class="alignnone wp-image-27378 size-full" src="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Template-Daily-16.png" alt="" width="1922" height="916" srcset="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Template-Daily-16.png 1922w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Template-Daily-16-300×143.png 300w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Template-Daily-16-1024×488.png 1024w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Template-Daily-16-768×366.png 768w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Template-Daily-16-1536×732.png 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 1922px) 100vw, 1922px" /></p>
<p><strong>Chart: WTI</strong></p>
<h2>Key Factors for Today</h2>
<ul>
<li>US GDP Grows, But Fed’s Beige Book Raises Caution for Investors</li>
<li>German Inflation Slowdown Triggers ECB Rate Cut Talk</li>
<li>Oil Gains on Reports of Saudi Cuts, Black Sea Storm Disruptions</li>
<li>Chinese Manufacturing Contracts Again, PBOC Back on PolicyTable</li>
</ul>
<h2>US GDP Grows, But Expectations Stir the Pot</h2>
<p>The US GDP was revised to 5.2% from 4.9% for the third quarter, showing a stronger growth than previously thought. However, the Fed’s Beige Book revealed a slowing economic activity nationwide. In line with this, Fed’s Raphael Bostic said he expects slower growth and easing inflation pressures. In an opposing view, Thomas Barkin was more sceptical about inflation reaching 2% and kept the door to another hike open. The dollar’s rise slowed down momentum in gold, but the yellow metal still hit a fresh May high at $2052 before recoiling to $2045 an ounce. Next up is $2070, and next down has $2035 as potential short-term support.</p>
<h2>German Inflation Signals ECB Rate Cut Prospects</h2>
<p>Eurozone sentiment increased slightly in November to 93.8 from 93.7, indicating a negligibly improving outlook. However, last month’s figures also saw a 20 bps revision to the upside. Despite this, German inflation showed signs of cooling at 3.2% versus the expected 3.5%, raising speculation of an ECB rate cut and the eurodollar failing to surpass the $1.10 barrier. The pair reached an August high of $1.1017 before reversing to 1.0968, paving the way to $1.0940. Meanwhile, Spanish CPI showed a deflation of -0.4%, and Euro Area CPIs are due today. Will they confirm the new narrative?</p>
<h2>WTI Up on Reports of Further SA Cuts, Black Sea Storm</h2>
<p>Oil extended gains for a second session in anticipation of OPEC+’s crucial meeting, where rumours have Saudi Arabia cutting an additional 1M bpd in the first half of next year. The market was little changed by EIA’s build to 1.764M vs 0.749M on Black Sea storm reports seeing potential disruptions on crude loadings. WTI ended Wednesday 1.55% higher to $77.70 per barrel, leading towards $80. $76.50/bbl is expected support.</p>
<h2>Chinese Manufacturing Contraction Calls For More Stimulus</h2>
<p>China’s manufacturing contracted for the second month to 49.4 in November, suggesting further stimulus measures to achieve a growth of “around 5%” next year. However, the PBOC faces a dilemma due to concerns over Yuan’s weakening and capital outflows. This doesn’t appear to be the case investors lean on currently, with AUDUSD having already recaptured Wednesday’s losses, supported by upbeat building permits. However, 0.6650 remains a strong resistance, with 0.6677 and 0.6590 on the table.</p>
<h2>On The Docket</h2>
<ul>
<li>DE Retail Sales</li>
<li>TR GDP Growth</li>
<li>FR GDP Growth</li>
<li>EA Inflation</li>
<li>CA GDP Growth</li>
<li>ECB President Lagarde Speech</li>
<li>PCE Inflation</li>
<li>Personal Income, Spending</li>
<li>Initial Jobless Claims</li>
<li>Fed Williams Speech</li>
<li>Pending Home Sales</li>
</ul>
<h2>FX 1-Day Relative Performance (USD)</h2>
<ul>
<li>Aussie and Kiwi 0.45% and 0.32% up</li>
<li>Euro and Pound 0.07% higher each</li>
<li>Loonie up 0.15%, Frank at +0.13%</li>
<li>Japanese yen 0.18% in the green</li>
<li>Gold and Silver 0.2% and 0.05% down</li>
<li>Crude and Brent up 0.51% and 0.45%</li>
<li>Natural gas 0.34% in the green</li>
</ul>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/analysis/jaspers-market-squawk-30-11-2023-27374/">JASPER’S MARKET SQUAWK 30-11-2023</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog">Key To Markets Blog</a>.</p>