Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: US GDP revised higher, dovish Fed talk continues

<ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-q3-gdp-second-estimate-52-vs-50-expected-20231129/">US Q3 GDP (second estimate) 5.2% vs 5.0% expected</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-advanced-goods-trade-balance-for-october-8984-billion-versus-864-billion-estimate-20231129/">US advanced goods trade balance for October -$89.84 billion vs. -$86.4 billion estimate</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-wholesale-inventories-for-october-02-versus-01-expected-20231129/">US wholesale inventories for October -0.2% versus 0.1% expected</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/germany-november-preliminary-cpi-32-vs-35-yy-expected-20231129/">Germany November preliminary CPI +3.2% vs +3.5% y/y expected</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/feds-beige-book-on-balance-economic-activity-slowed-since-the-previous-report-20231129/">Fed's Beige Book: On balance, economic activity slowed since the previous report</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/feds-mester-monetary-policy-is-in-a-good-place-20231129/">Fed's Mester: Monetary policy is 'in a good place'</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/reserve-bank-of-new-zealand-hints-at-possible-tightening-to-control-inflation-nzdusd-up-20231129/">Reserve Bank of New Zealand hints at possible tightening to control inflation. NZDUSD up.</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/weekly-eia-inventories-crude-oil-1609k-versus-933k-expected-20231129/">Weekly EIA inventories crude oil +1609K versus -933K expected</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/feds-barkin-im-hearing-consumers-slowing-down-but-not-falling-off-the-table-20231129/">Feds Barkin: I'm hearing consumers slowing down, but not falling off the table</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/biden-administration-to-revamp-ev-tax-credits-to-curb-chinese-influence-20231129/">Biden Administration to revamp EV tax credits to curb Chinese influence</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>Gold up $3 to $2043</li><li>US 10-year yields down 7 bps to 4.26%</li><li>WTI crude up $1.32 to $77.73</li><li>CHF leads, AUD lags</li><li>S&amp;P 500 finishes down 0.1%</li></ul><p>The market continues to price in further Fed rate cuts next year with December 2024 now at 117 bps from 100 bps yesterday. Bill Ackman helped to kick it off today but it was German CPI, somewhat dovish Fed talk and soft commentary in the Beige Book that pushed it further. The market is falling in love with the idea of a soft landing or no landing scenario where inflation falls back to 2% and the Fed cuts, or has room to cut. It's a return to the 2010s status quo, which is a playbook that market participants are familiar with.</p><p>But for all that market pricing in Fed funds, the FX market didn't exactly follow along. The US dollar fell into the Beige Book but rebounded strongly rate in the day. Equities failed to hold onto gains as well. Some of that could be month-end flows and there are worries about OPEC tomorrow and how that might play into inflation but it's certainly worth watching.</p><p>The euro was soft on lower German CPI with the eurozone data to come next. EUR/CHF sold hard on expectations of monetary convergence, burying the idea of sticky inflation. European natural gas prices also continue to behave despite the recent cold snap.</p><p>Cable ran up to 1.2725 but couldn't get through yesterday's high and fell back to the figure.</p><p>Talk of a New Zealand rate hike briefly boosted the kiwi and it finished right behind the Swissy as the top performer on the day.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.