Short Note for the Day after Thanksgiving

<div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgenDWK35Pl6YH_SB390kSlnsxvWDhVTWgU3jE4R5In6438axeAQ8y-4FDZFwRcka2y1a9qlqP3uJMKq-TUBm6D1r7fuvU9pFrgQUqzrkfDKfASqzKO9xPkhFc1O8uBGv03ZOfTBHovnm1xvrBWPsAiKI00xNsOEICNyjAv51iRjcPHs0PsE7FQqajOtty0/s826/Dollar%202.jpg"><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="826" data-original-width="818" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgenDWK35Pl6YH_SB390kSlnsxvWDhVTWgU3jE4R5In6438axeAQ8y-4FDZFwRcka2y1a9qlqP3uJMKq-TUBm6D1r7fuvU9pFrgQUqzrkfDKfASqzKO9xPkhFc1O8uBGv03ZOfTBHovnm1xvrBWPsAiKI00xNsOEICNyjAv51iRjcPHs0PsE7FQqajOtty0/s400/Dollar%202.jpg" /></a></div><p><span><b>Price Action:</b>
&nbsp;Since the North American markets closed Wednesday, the foreign
exchange market has been subdued.&nbsp; Most of the major currencies are
+/- 0.2%.&nbsp; The Antipodeans and sterling have risen a bit more.&nbsp;
The euro is in the middle of this week’s range (~$1.0850-$1.0965).&nbsp;
The dollar is at the upper end of this week- range against the Japanese
yen (~JPY147.15-JPY149.75).&nbsp; Sterling is trading near the high for
the week set in Europe today near $1.2565.&nbsp; Recall that the $1.2590
area is the (50%) retracement of the losses since the March high
(~$1.3140). The Australian dollar is firm but holding below the week’s
high (~$0.6590) and the 200-day moving average (~$0.6585).&nbsp; The US
dollar settled on Wednesday slightly above CAD1.3685.&nbsp; It has been in
a range of roughly CAD1.3650-CAD1.3710 but is trading near the Wednesday’s
settlement.&nbsp; The greenback is consolidating within the range set on
Wednesday against the Chinese yuan (~CNY7.1365-CNY7.1650).&nbsp;&nbsp;</span></p><p><b><span>Developments</span></b></p>

<ol start="1" type="A">
<li><span>Reports indicate China is consider new bolder efforts
to support the property market.&nbsp; Developer stocks rallied.&nbsp;</span></li></ol>

<ol start="2" type="A">
<li><span>Far-right won the most seats in the Dutch election, but
market took in stride as Wilder’s Freedom Party may have the more seats
than any other party, it looks almost impossible for him to cobble
together a majority coalition.&nbsp; Still, shows shift in Europe—especially
anti-immigration.&nbsp;</span></li></ol>

<ol start="3" type="A">
<li><span>OPEC’s meeting was delayed until next week amid reports
of discord, like in June over quotas. Many had expected an extension of
Saudi Arabia’s cuts and maybe pressure on others to cut.&nbsp; January WTI
fell on the news.&nbsp;</span></li></ol>

<ol start="4" type="A">
<li><span>Preliminary PMIs</span></li></ol><ul><ul><ul><ul><li><span>&nbsp; Australia softened.&nbsp; Manufacturing and services
eased, and the&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;composite fell to 46.4 from 47.6.</span></li><li><span>EMU showed improvement but all the readings remain
below 50 boom/bust.</span></li><li><span>German’s composite rose to 47.1 from 45.9, it is the
highest since July.</span></li><li><span>France’s PMI deteriorated slightly, the opposite of
Germany, and the composite slipped to 44.5 from 44.6</span></li><li><span>The UK’s PMI was The surprise.&nbsp; Its PMI was better
than expected, and the improvement saw services move above 50 and so did
the composite, for the first time since July.&nbsp; &nbsp;Sterling led the
G10 currencies higher yesterday.&nbsp;</span><span>&nbsp;</span></li></ul></ul></ul></ul>

<ol start="5" type="A">
<li><span>Germany’s Constitutional Court ruled recently that a
plan to shift Covid funds in an off-budget facility to climate change was
unconstitutional.&nbsp; It has thrown German fiscal policy into disarray
and the government has been forced to suspend it debt brake again.&nbsp;
In effect, the court decision created a 37 bln euro fiscal hole.&nbsp; The
market fears it will be filled by new issuance.&nbsp; This has triggered a
steep sell-off of European bonds and appears to be pushing US yields
higher too, and dragging up JGB yields. &nbsp;Separately, the Bundesbank
warned in its financial stability report that financial institutions “book
values are often higher than current market values, so selling securities
would result in losses.“&nbsp;&nbsp;</span></li></ol>

<ol start="6" type="A">
<li><span>Japan’s October national CPI rose slightly less than
expected, but the report was broadly in line with the Tokyo CPI that was
released a few weeks ago.&nbsp; For the nation, October CPI rose to 3.3%
from 3.0% (median forecast in Bloomberg’s survey was for 3.4%).&nbsp; The
core measure, which excludes fresh food rose by 2.9% from 2.8% (3.0%
median forecast), while if energy is also excluded the core-core measure
eased to 4.0% from 4.2% (4.1% expected).&nbsp;&nbsp;</span></li></ol>

<ol start="7" type="A">
<li><span>North America today</span></li></ol><ul><ul><ul><ul><li><span><span>The US sees the flash November PMI.&nbsp; Slightly
softer readings are expected but the composite is expected to have
remained above 50.</span></span></li><li><span>Canada reports September retail sales.&nbsp; The
median forecast is for a flat report and a small decline excluding
autos.</span></li><li><span>Mexico reports IGAE surveys, which are likely to
have moderated in September, and Q3 GDP revision (from 3.3%
year-over-year and 0.9% quarter-over-quarter.&nbsp;</span></li></ul></ul></ul></ul><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><a href="http://www.marctomarket.com/p/disclaimer_28.html" target="_blank"><span face="&quot;Open Sans&quot;, sans-serif">Disclaimer</span></a></p>