JASPER’S MARKET SQUAWK 23-11-2023

<h2>Traders Celebrate New 2023 Highs</h2>
<p>Despite volumes hitting their lowest in the year, traders left their desks for Thanksgiving in good spirits. All three major indices closed higher on Wednesday after hitting fresh highs for 2023, with the dollar also up from shorting Treasury bonds.</p>
<p><img decoding="async" fetchpriority="high" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-27214" src="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Template-Daily-11.png" alt="" width="1919" height="913" srcset="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Template-Daily-11.png 1919w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Template-Daily-11-300×143.png 300w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Template-Daily-11-1024×487.png 1024w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Template-Daily-11-768×365.png 768w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Template-Daily-11-1536×731.png 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 1919px) 100vw, 1919px" /></p>
<p><strong>Chart: GBPUSD</strong></p>
<h2>Key Factors for Today</h2>
<ul>
<li>Mixed Signals from Latest US Data Keep Investors on Their Toes</li>
<li>Eurozone Officials Divided Over Current Cycle, Eurodollar Ends in Red</li>
<li>UK Budget Statement Leaves Markets Skeptical, Sterling Weighed Down</li>
<li>Oil Nosedives 5% After OPEC+ Meeting Delay, Uncertainty Grips Market</li>
</ul>
<h2>Mixed Signals from the Latest Array of US Data</h2>
<p>The latest US data array sent mixed signals about where yields might be heading. On the one hand, people expect 1-year inflation and 5-10-year costs to keep rising at 4.5% and 3.2% – respectively, which supported yields. On the other hand, the number of people filing for unemployment benefits decreased by 24K, though orders for ‘durable goods’ took a bit of a nosedive due to a slowdown in the transportation sector. Overall, the dollar came out as a winner, but major indices also rose, albeit investors cut gains in the latter short. Gold was down as a result, falling below $1900 after failing to reclaim $2K again, exposing $1980.</p>
<h2>Oil Nosedives 5% After OPEC+ Meeting Delay</h2>
<p>Oil prices experienced a steep 5% drop to $73.80 a barrel on Wednesday due to increased uncertainty from the postponement of the OPEC+ meeting to November 30, as it reduced expectations of supply tightening. The EIA also reported a more than double build-up in oil stocks of 8.7M barrels, compared to expectations of 3.6M, keeping the commodity under pressure by the session’s end. However, over 4% of those losses were won back by then, with WTI resistance remaining at $77.70 a barrel.</p>
<h2>UK Budget Statement Taken with a Pinch of Salt</h2>
<p>The UK government, led by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, announced measures to revive the UK’s sluggish economy without upsetting markets, but caution over borrowing and higher inflation, along with lower growth projections, weighed on sterling. The budget did not change the view that the UK faces an increased risk of stagflation, nor bottlenecks for homebuilders and business investment despite pledging to cut personal taxes. Meanwhile, banking giant JP Morgan thinks the BOE might cut rates near the end of 2024 instead of pausing throughout the year. The British pound slid to $1.2450 but was rejected by the 200-day SMA, with $1.2560 more critical.</p>
<h2>Eurozone Officials at Odds About Current Cycle</h2>
<p>Over in Europe, ECB’s member Joachim Nagel thinks the Eurozone economy won’t experience a ‘hard landing’. In fact, he believes interest rates are close to the terminal rate, albeit data-driven. On the other end of the spectrum, policymaker Mario Centeno expressed a different perspective. He reckons we might soon see a U-turn in the current “intense” cycle. The eurodollar ended the session in the red but recoiled most losses from $1.0851 to $1.0888, opening the door to $1.0942.</p>
<h2>On The Docket</h2>
<ul>
<li>French Manufacturing, Services PMIs</li>
<li>German Manufacturing, Services PMIs</li>
<li>EA Manufacturing, Services PMIs</li>
<li>S&amp;P Global/CIPS Manufacturing, Services PMIs</li>
<li>TCMB Inrest Ratew Decision</li>
<li>ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts</li>
<li>South Africa Interest Rate Decision</li>
</ul>
<h2>FX 1-Day Relative Performance (USD)</h2>
<ul>
<li>Aussie and Kiwi 0.41% and 0.7% up</li>
<li>Euro 0.24% up, Pound 0.17% higher</li>
<li>Loonie 0.19% in green, Frank at +0.15%</li>
<li>Japanese yen 0.40% in the green zone</li>
<li>Gold 0.21% up, Silver at positive 0.37%</li>
<li>Crude and Brent 1.14% and 1.28% in red</li>
<li>Natural gas 0.86% in the negative</li>
</ul>
<p>The post <a href="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/analysis/jaspers-market-squawk-23-11-2023-27210/">JASPER’S MARKET SQUAWK 23-11-2023</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog">Key To Markets Blog</a>.</p>