Goldman Sachs predicts a 35% probability of further OPEC+ 'insurance' output cuts

<p><br></p><p>Goldman Sachs on the OPEC+ meeting coming up on November 26:</p><ul><li>its statistical model of OPEC decisions suggests that deeper output cuts should not be ruled out</li><li>sees a 35% probability of a deeper cut</li><li>says OPEC+ would see such further cuts as "insurance" against the price of Brent crude falling below their $80/bbl estimate of the OPEC put in Q1</li></ul><p>GS cite:</p><ul><li>the fall in speculative positioning and in timespreads</li><li>higher-than-expected inventories</li></ul><figure data-media-><img src="https://images.forexlive.com/images/opec%20oil%2017%20February%202023_id_1b3f5263-4696-48ff-aef2-34f6898c122c_original.jpg" alt="opec oil 17 February 2023" width="524" height="318" wrapper-="wrapper-" data-src="https://images.forexlive.com/images/opec%20oil%2017%20February%202023_id_1b3f5263-4696-48ff-aef2-34f6898c122c_original.jpg" /></figure><p>GS may have a point on inventories given this earlier:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/private-oil-survey-data-shows-much-larger-headline-crude-build-than-was-expected-20231121/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">Private oil survey data shows MUCH larger headline crude build than was expected</a></li></ul><p><br></p>

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.