Currency Market Analysis: Dollar Weakness, Bond Auction Strength, and Global Economic Signals

The dollar index continues its search for lows this week; however, seller activity has diminished as the market overall remains relaxed, given that this week marks Thanksgiving in the United States:It is worth noting that the price has dropped below all three key moving averages (50, 100 and 200-day), increasing the likelihood of a rebound next week. The auction of 20-year US Treasury bonds showed strong demand on Monday. The fact that investors have shown increased interest in these securities, even after a sharp decline in yields over a short period and despite the uncertainty related to partisan opposition regarding the government budget (which undermines the impeccable credit rating of the USA), has become a signal for the market to buy bonds across all maturity spectrums. As a result, almost the entire US yield curve decreased by an additional 4-5 basis points yesterday, weakening the dollar. Today, the market will trade the report on existing home sales in the US and the minutes of the FOMC meeting on November 1. According to the initial report, the consensus forecast is 3.88 million units, which, by the way, is the lowest value since 2010. The basis for such weak figures is the relatively high mortgage rate (around 8% for 30 years) and a low level of mortgage applications in October. Weak data will confirm that the high Fed rate is beginning to fully impact key macro variables. The market is also focused on the yuan's revaluation, which is actively supported by Chinese authorities. Although China is trying to avoid its excessive devaluation, the rapid strengthening of the yuan in pure economic terms will not necessarily be beneficial, given the significant role of exports in the economy. Nevertheless, authorities actively support its strengthening, and today they set the reference rate stronger than expected—close to 7.14. A strong yuan pulls up the entire Asian currency bloc, which, in aggregate, may also have a negative impact on the dollar. For EURUSD, today presents an opportunity to break through 1.10 on the potentially weak report on existing home sales in the USA, but consolidation is unlikely. To achieve this, we probably need to see a decisive reduction in the interest rate on the two-year US Treasury bond, which continues to stubbornly hold near 5%, even after a series of recent soft US data. Upward movement is also temporarily hindered by concerns that several European PMI indices due on Thursday will remind us that the weakness of the European economy has not disappeared and may have even intensified. The Canadian dollar is awaiting an inflation report. A slowdown in growth from 3.8% to 3.2% is expected. Today, USDCAD is slightly in the negative against the backdrop of calm trading in the currency market overall. On the daily chart, technical figures formed by the pair resemble preparation for a downward breakthrough—a triangle near the lower boundary of the main upward trend. The inflation report may well contribute to this today: