US October core CPI +4.0% y/y versus +4.1% y/y expected

<ul><li>CPI y/y +3.2% versus 3.3% expected</li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-september-cpi-37-yy-versus-36-yy-expected-20231012/" target="_blank" rel="follow">Prior </a>y/y 3.7%</li><li>CPI m/m +0.0% versus +0.1% expected </li><li>Prior m/m +0.4%</li></ul><p>Core measures:</p><ul><li>Core CPI m/m +0.2% versus +0.3% expected. Last month 0.3%</li><li>Core CPI y/y 4.0% versus 4.1% expected. Last month was 4.1%</li><li>Shelter +0.3% versus +0.6% last month. Year on year % versus 7.2% last month</li><li>Services less rent of shelter +0.3% m/m vs +0.6% prior</li><li>Real weekly earnings % vs -0.2% prior</li><li>Food +0.3% m/m vs +0.2% m/m prior</li><li>Energy -2.5% m/m vs +1.5% m/m prior</li><li>Rents +0.5% vs +0.5% prior</li><li>Owner equivalent rent +0.4% vs +0.6% prior</li></ul><p>The US dollar has dropped around 60 pips across the board on the headlines as there is a consistent theme of softness in the numbers. The odds of a December hike have been completely erased and January is down to 7% from 33%.</p><p>In fixed income, US Treasury yields are down 9-16 bps with US 10s down 13.8 bps to 4.49% (critically, below 4.50%).</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.