Reserve Bank of Australia expected to hike its cash rate by 25bp today, but "a close call"

<p>Every analyst I've read on the Tuesday, 7 November 2023 RBA decision has forecast a rate hike. </p><p>I have seen a couple of hold outs though. I haven't managed to read a piece making the arguments for a hold. If I was writing such a piece (I am not as I think the RBA will raise its cash rate today) I'd point o:</p><ul><li>the RBA having been complacent in the past and it wouldn't surprise me if they are again</li><li>the movement higher for inflation evident in the recent official is not "material" for the RBA's inflation outlook</li><li>the impact of past rate hikes has not yet fully filtered into the real economy so there is a reason not to hike</li></ul><p>From TD:</p><ul><li>expect a 25 bps hike following the outsized Q3 CPI print</li><li>The outcome was material in our view and threatens the RBA's ability to bring inflation under 3% by Q4'25. </li><li>A hike would be consistent with RBA comments of ‘…a low tolerance returning inflation to target more slowly than currently expected.’</li><li> That said, we do acknowledge the decision is a close call</li></ul><p>Bolding mine. Yes, it is. Market pricing is around 60% for a hike.</p><p>—</p><p>Earlier:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/former-rba-board-member-on-ways-to-lower-australian-inflation-why-rba-will-hike-today-20231106/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">Former RBA Board member on ways to lower Australian inflation (&amp; why RBA will hike today)</a></li></ul><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/rba-shadow-board-recommends-a-rate-hike-at-tomorrows-monetary-policy-meeting-20231106/" target="_blank" data-article-link="true">RBA Shadow Board recommends a rate hike at tomorrow's monetary policy meeting</a></li></ul><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/failure-to-act-on-high-cpi-threatens-to-damage-the-reserve-bank-of-australias-credibility-20231026/" target="_blank" data-article-link="true">Failure to act on high CPI threatens to damage the Reserve Bank of Australia's credibility</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/reuters-poll-rba-to-high-cash-rate-to-435-on-november-7-20231103/" target="_blank" data-article-link="true">Reuters Poll: RBA to high cash rate to 4.35% on November 7</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/imf-tells-the-rba-to-hike-interest-rates-higher-and-hold-em-high-for-longer-20231101/" target="_blank" data-article-link="true">IMF tells the RBA to hike interest rates higher, and hold 'em high for longer</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/westpac-now-forecasting-a-november-reserve-bank-of-australia-rate-hike-20231026/" target="_self">Westpac forecasting a November Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike</a></li></ul><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/ubs-forecasts-a-november-rba-interest-rate-hike-and-likely-more-to-come-after-that-20231025/" target="_blank" data-article-link="true">UBS forecasts a November RBA interest rate hike, and likely more to come after that</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/rba-rate-hike-incoming-on-november-7-will-they-hike-again-in-december-20231025/" target="_self">RBA rate hike incoming on November 7 – will they hike again in December?</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/commonwealth-bank-of-australia-forecast-a-25bp-rba-rate-hike-on-november-7-20231025/" target="_self">Commonwealth Bank of Australia forecast a 25bp RBA rate hike on November 7</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/australia-demand-for-luxury-supercars-through-the-roof-20231025/" target="_self">Australia – Demand for luxury supercars "through the roof"</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/australian-treasurer-chalmers-says-inflation-is-moderating-but-persistent-20231025/" target="_self">Australian Treasurer Chalmers says inflation is moderating but persistent</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/anz-forecasts-a-25bp-rba-interest-rate-hike-on-november-7-previous-forecast-was-december-20231025/" target="_self">ANZ forecasts a 25bp RBA interest rate hike on November 7 (previous forecast was December)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/australia-market-is-rapidly-pricing-in-a-november-rate-hike-after-surging-inflation-data-20231025/" target="_self">Australia – market is rapidly pricing in a November rate hike after surging inflation data</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/audusd-jumped-higher-on-australian-inflation-data-november-7-rate-hike-is-likely-now-20231025/" target="_self">AUD/USD jumped higher on Australian inflation data, November 7 rate hike is likely now.</a></li></ul><p>The RBA statement is due at 2.30pm Sydney time, which is 2230 US Eastern time and 0330 GMT.</p><p>—</p>

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.