UBS forecasts a November RBA interest rate hike, and likely more to come after that

<p>UBS response to Wednesday's upside surprise in Australian inflation data, its Australian economist forecasts a 25bp Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate hike at its November 7 meeting:</p><ul><li>“RBA Governor Bullock’s speech last night effectively specified they ‘will not hesitate to raise the cash rate further’ – implying a hike of 25bp at their November meeting – ‘if there is a material upward revision to the outlook for inflation’” </li><li>“UBS has for several months highlighted the material risk the RBA could hike rates in November, particularly if CPI was higher than expected. Well, that’s the case now.</li></ul><p>Added that the RBA, like many other DM central banks will keep the cash rate higher for longer.</p><p>Says a February 2024 is likely. </p><p>The cash rate will go to 4.35% at the November 7 meeting. </p><p>–</p><p>ps. Bullock speaks today:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/economic-calendar-in-asia-thursday-26-october-2023-rba-governor-bullock-speaking-20231025/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">Economic calendar in Asia Thursday, 26 October 2023 – RBA Governor Bullock speaking</a></li></ul><p>—</p><p>The CPI data and responses ICYMI:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/rba-rate-hike-incoming-on-november-7-will-they-hike-again-in-december-20231025/" target="_self">RBA rate hike incoming on November 7 – will they hike again in December?</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/commonwealth-bank-of-australia-forecast-a-25bp-rba-rate-hike-on-november-7-20231025/" target="_self">Commonwealth Bank of Australia forecast a 25bp RBA rate hike on November 7</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/australia-demand-for-luxury-supercars-through-the-roof-20231025/" target="_self">Australia – Demand for luxury supercars "through the roof"</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/australian-treasurer-chalmers-says-inflation-is-moderating-but-persistent-20231025/" target="_self">Australian Treasurer Chalmers says inflation is moderating but persistent</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/anz-forecasts-a-25bp-rba-interest-rate-hike-on-november-7-previous-forecast-was-december-20231025/" target="_self">ANZ forecasts a 25bp RBA interest rate hike on November 7 (previous forecast was December)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/australia-market-is-rapidly-pricing-in-a-november-rate-hike-after-surging-inflation-data-20231025/" target="_self">Australia – market is rapidly pricing in a November rate hike after surging inflation data</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/audusd-jumped-higher-on-australian-inflation-data-november-7-rate-hike-is-likely-now-20231025/" target="_self">AUD/USD jumped higher on Australian inflation data, November 7 rate hike is likely now.</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/australian-q3-2023-headline-cpi-12-qq-vs-11-expected-20231025/" target="_self">Australian Q3 2023 Headline CPI +1.2% q/q (vs. 1.1% expected)</a></li></ul>

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.