Preview: Australian official Q3 CPI data is due today, could cause the RBA some discomfort

<p> Q3 CPI from Australia is due at 11.30am local time:</p><ul><li>0030 GMT</li><li>2030 US Eastern time</li></ul><p>Monthly inflation for September will also be released at the same time.</p><p>The CPI data is always keenly awaited, even most so today given this from the latest RBA meeting minutes:</p><ul><li>“the Board has a low tolerance for a slower return of inflation to target than currently expected"</li></ul><p>Via Westpac:</p><ul><li>forecast for a 1.1% rise in the September quarter CPI which will see the annual pace ease back from 6.0% YoY to 5.3% YoY. </li><li>core inflation, our Trimmed Mean estimate is also 1.1% QoQ which will see the annual pace ease to 5.0% YoY from 5.9% YoY. </li><li>will also see a moderation in the six-month annualised pace from 4.3% YoY in June to 4.0% YoY in September. </li><li>forecast a 0.2% rise in the September Monthly CPI Indicator which will see the annual pace hold flat at 5.2% YoY</li></ul><p>And from ANZ, analysts at the bank taking note of that highlight from the minutes above:</p><ul><li>expect headline CPI to print at 1.1% QoQ and trimmed mean inflation at 1.2% QoQ in Q3. </li><li>This would see the annual measures ease to 5.3% YoY and 5.1% YoY respectively. </li><li>The monthly CPI indicator is forecast to rise 5.4% YoY in September, up from July’s 4.9% YoY low. </li><li>This outcome, particularly for trimmed mean, would cause the RBA some discomfort given its ‘low tolerance for a slower return of inflation to target’ than current forecasts.</li></ul><p>I posted previews earlier here:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/aud-traders-nab-says-cpi-data-to-be-higher-than-rba-expects-forecast-november-rate-hike-20231023/" target="_blank" data-article-link="true">AUD traders – NAB says CPI data to be higher than RBA expects, forecast November rate hike</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/the-good-news-bad-news-preview-of-australia-cpi-data-due-wednesday-20231023/" target="_blank" data-article-link="true">The good news / bad news preview of Australia CPI data due Wednesday</a></li></ul><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/preview-of-australian-q3-cpi-data-due-today-risks-skewed-to-the-upside-20231024/" target="_self">Preview of Australian Q3 CPI data due today – risks skewed to the upside</a></li></ul>

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.