USDJPY Technical Analysis – Waiting for a breakout

<p>US</p><ul><li>The Fed <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/the-fomc-keeps-the-target-fed-funds-range-at-525-to-550-20230920/">left interest rates unchanged</a> as expected at the last meeting.</li><li>The macroeconomic projections were revised higher,
and the Dot Plot showed that the FOMC still expects another rate hike by the
end of the year with less rate cuts projected in 2024.</li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/highlights-from-the-fed-chair-powells-press-conference-after-september-rate-decision-20230920/">Fed Chair Powell</a> reaffirmed their data dependency but added that
they will proceed carefully. </li><li>The <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-september-cpi-37-yy-versus-36-yy-expected-20231012/">US CPI</a> beat expectations on the headline
figures, but the core measures came in line with forecasts and the market’s
pricing barely changed. </li><li>The <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-august-non-farm-payrolls-187k-vs-170k-expected-20230901/">labour market</a> remains pretty resilient as seen once again last
week with the beat in<a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-weekly-initial-jobs-claims-198k-versus-212k-expected-20231019/">Jobless Claims</a>, although continuing claims missed for a second
time in a row. </li><li>The <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-september-retail-sales-07-versus-03-expected-20231017/">US Retail Sales</a> last week beat expectations by a big
margin with positive revisions to the prior figures, suggesting the consumers’
spending is still solid.</li><li>Yesterday’s <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-september-sp-global-flash-services-pmi-509-vs-498-expected-20231024/">US PMIs</a> showed that the economy now looks more
balanced and resilient.</li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/feds-powell-fomc-is-proceeding-carefully-20231019/">Fed Chair Powell</a>and other FOMC members continue to highlight the rise in long term yields as doing
the job for the Fed and therefore they are expected to keep rates steady in
November as well.</li><li>The market doesn’t expect the Fed to hike anymore.</li></ul><p>Japan</p><ul><li>The BoJ <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boj-makes-no-change-to-its-major-policy-planks-no-change-to-forward-guidance-20230922/">kept everything unchanged</a> as expected at the last meeting.</li><li>The <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/japan-september-inflationheadline-inches-lower-than-in-august-still-above-2-boj-target-20231019/">Japanese CPI</a>last week showed that inflationary pressures
remain high with the core-core reading hovering at the cycle highs.</li><li>The Unemployment Rate last month
remained unchanged near cycle lows.</li><li>The <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/japan-jibun-preliminary-manufacturing-pmi-for-october-485-prior-485-20231024/">Japanese Manufacturing PMI</a> matched the prior reading remaining
in contraction with the Services PMI falling but holding on in expansion.</li><li>BoJ officials continue to repeat
that the central bank should keep the current monetary policy. </li><li>The latest <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/japan-data-august-inflation-adjusted-real-wages-fell-25-yy-20231005/">Japanese wage data</a> missed expectations again which is
unlikely to lead to a more hawkish BoJ in the near future.</li></ul><p>USDJPY Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe</p><p>On the daily chart, we can see
that the USDJPY pair is getting more and more compressed into the key 150.00 level,
but lacks the courage to push above it due to intervention fears. We can also
notice that we’ve been <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-divergence-20220429/">diverging</a> with the
<a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-macd-20220427/">MACD</a>, which
is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, we only got pullbacks into the red 21 <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/">moving average</a>, which
is acting as dynamic support for the buyers. It’s a waiting game until some key
level breaks or we get some strong fundamental catalyst. </p><p>USDJPY Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe</p><p>On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price
action has formed what looks like an <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Education/chart-patterns-guide-20220125/">ascending triangle</a> with the
150.00 <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/">resistance</a> and the <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/">trendline</a> defining
the pattern. A breakout on either side generally triggers a strong and
sustained move in the direction of the breakout, so the market participants can
sit on their hands and wait for the price to show the most likely direction. </p><p>USDJPY Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe</p><p>On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
price yesterday bounced on the trendline and the 149.35 support as the market
didn’t have enough conviction to break to the downside. In fact, the US PMIs
later in the day beat expectations, showing once again that the US economy remains
resilient. Given the Fed’s higher for longer mantra and the BoJ’s inaction, the
USDJPY pair has limited downside until the US data weakens meaningfully or the
BoJ turns hawkish. </p><p>Upcoming Events</p><p><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar">Tomorrow</a> we will see the latest US Jobless Claims data
with the market likely focusing on the Continuing Claims figures as they’ve
missed expectations two times in a row already and might be a signal that the
labour market is weakening. On Friday, we will get the Tokyo CPI and the US PCE
reports which are unlikely to change anything for the near-term policy outlook.</p><p>See the video below</p>

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.